Akron vs. Pittsburgh: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
AKRTeam statsPITT
- Q4 12:20AKRCody Grice 2 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)21–10
- Q3 6:15PITTChris Blewitt 34 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q3 12:13AKRCody Grice 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)14–7
- Q2 3:40AKRMykel Traylor-Bennett 52 Yd pass from Kyle Pohl (Robert Stein Kick)7–7
- Q2 4:28PITTManasseh Garner 8 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Chris Blewitt Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKyle Pohl 15/29, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushConor Hundley 19 CAR, 148 YDS
- RecMykel Traylor-Bennett 3 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD
- PassChad Voytik 20/34, 220 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJames Conner 25 CAR, 92 YDS
- RecTyler Boyd 6 REC, 72 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsAKR up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 12:20AKR +32%
Cody Grice run for 2 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
- Q3 12:13AKR +26%
Cody Grice run for 1 yd for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
- Q4 6:05AKR +17%
Conor Hundley run for 1 yd to the Akron 41
- Q4 15:00AKR +15%
Kyle Pohl pass incomplete to Zach D'Orazio
- Q2 3:40AKR +14%
Kyle Pohl pass complete to Mykel Traylor-Bennett for 52 yds for a TD, (Robert Stein KICK)
- Q2 4:28PITT +12%
Chad Voytik pass complete to Manasseh Garner for 8 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Akron vs. Pittsburgh?
Akron 21, Pittsburgh 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked PITT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| AKR | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 382 | Total yards | 349 |
| 213 | Passing yards | 220 |
| 169 | Rushing yards | 129 |
| 20 | First downs | 22 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 17/35 | Comp/Att | 20/34 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 6.5 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 3.2 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 10-64 | Penalties | 7-55 |
| 26:14 | Possession | 33:46 |
Costliest call
Q3 3:17 PITT punt on 4th & 1 at PITT 29. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 12:20AKRCody Grice 2 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)21–10
- Q3 6:15PITTChris Blewitt 34 Yd Field Goal 14–10
- Q3 12:13AKRCody Grice 1 Yd Run (Robert Stein Kick)14–7
- Q2 3:40AKRMykel Traylor-Bennett 52 Yd pass from Kyle Pohl (Robert Stein Kick)7–7
- Q2 4:28PITTManasseh Garner 8 Yd pass from Chad Voytik (Chris Blewitt Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PITT Elo 1542, AKR Elo 1200 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PITT -16.1 (86% to win) — 3.9 points clear of AKR's market line of -20. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2014
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#28 of 94 in 2014 by biggest miss · #10 of 94 in 2014 by longest odds.
The 2014 upset archive →| AKR | PITT | |
|---|---|---|
| 1.53 | points / drive | 2.53 |
| 1.90 | allowed / drive | 2.50 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 24% |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →