Vanderbilt vs. Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
VANTeam statsFLA
- Q4 0:45VANVANDERBILT 31 yard field goal GOOD.34–17
- Q4 7:40FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.31–17
- Q4 7:40FLAFLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.31–17
- Q4 14:54VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.31–10
- Q4 14:54VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.30–10
- Q3 7:16FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.24–10
- Q3 7:16FLAFLORIDA rush for a touchdown.24–9
- Q3 12:47VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.24–3
- Q3 12:47VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.23–3
- Q2 1:47FLAFLORIDA 23 yard field goal GOOD.17–3
- Q2 9:22VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.17–0
- Q2 9:22VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.16–0
- Q1 0:03VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.10–0
- Q1 0:03VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.9–0
- Q1 7:56VANVANDERBILT 31 yard field goal GOOD.3–0
How the model called it
- PassPatton Robinette 6/12, 57 YDS
- RushJerron Seymour 24 CAR, 62 YDS, 3 TD
- RecJordan Matthews 5 REC, 45 YDS
- PassTyler Murphy 30/46, 305 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushKelvin Taylor 14 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
- RecQuinton Dunbar 6 REC, 77 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsVAN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:22VAN +20%
Patton Robinette rush for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:03VAN +19%
Jerron Seymour rush for 10 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 12:47VAN +16%
Jerron Seymour rush for 2 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 14:54VAN +11%
Jerron Seymour rush for 1 yard for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 3:20VAN +9%
Patton Robinette pass complete to Jordan Matthews for 2 yards to the Fla 28
- Q3 7:16FLA +9%
Kelvin Taylor rush for 4 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Vanderbilt vs. Florida?
Vanderbilt 34, Florida 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| VAN | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 183 | Total yards | 344 |
| 57 | Passing yards | 305 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 39 |
| 12 | First downs | 26 |
| 4-13 | 3rd down | 5-14 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 6/12 | Comp/Att | 30/46 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 6.6 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 1.1 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 8-57 | Penalties | 11-84 |
| 29:00 | Possession | 31:00 |
Costliest call
Q4 11:14 FLA punt on 4th & 31 at VAN 38. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.41 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:45VANVANDERBILT 31 yard field goal GOOD.34–17
- Q4 7:40FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.31–17
- Q4 7:40FLAFLORIDA pass complete for a touchdown.31–17
- Q4 14:54VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.31–10
- Q4 14:54VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.30–10
- Q3 7:16FLAFLORIDA Extra point GOOD.24–10
- Q3 7:16FLAFLORIDA rush for a touchdown.24–9
- Q3 12:47VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.24–3
- Q3 12:47VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.23–3
- Q2 1:47FLAFLORIDA 23 yard field goal GOOD.17–3
- Q2 9:22VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.17–0
- Q2 9:22VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.16–0
- Q1 0:03VANVANDERBILT Extra point GOOD.10–0
- Q1 0:03VANVANDERBILT rush for a touchdown.9–0
- Q1 7:56VANVANDERBILT 31 yard field goal GOOD.3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FLA Elo 1738, VAN Elo 1542 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FLA -10.2 (76% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#36 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #39 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Florida leads 44–11–2 · 35% have been one-possession games
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →