UTSA vs. Tulsa: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
UTSATeam statsTLSA
- Q4 3:52TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.34–15
- Q4 3:52TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.34–14
- Q4 8:33UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.34–8
- Q4 8:33UTSATEXASSAN interception return for a touchdown.33–8
- Q4 11:36UTSATEXASSAN 31 yard field goal GOOD.27–8
- Q3 0:06TLSATULSA2-point conversion pass GOOD.24–8
- Q3 0:06TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.24–6
- Q2 6:02UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.24–0
- Q2 6:02UTSATEXASSAN rush for a touchdown.23–0
- Q2 11:31UTSATEXASSAN 41 yard field goal GOOD.17–0
- Q1 4:17UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 4:17UTSATEXASSAN punt return for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 7:35UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 7:35UTSATEXASSAN pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
How the model called it
- PassEric Soza 16/20, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- RushDavid Glasco II 21 CAR, 135 YDS
- RecKam Jones 4 REC, 34 YDS
- PassDane Evans 12/22, 159 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushTrey Watts 15 CAR, 109 YDS
- RecKeevan Lucas 5 REC, 87 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTSA up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 4:17UTSA +17%
Kristian Stern punt for 42 yards, returned by Trey Watts for no gain, fumbled, recovered by TexSA Nic Johnston in the endzone for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 7:35UTSA +17%
Eric Soza pass complete to Evans Okotcha for 5 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 6:02UTSA +10%
Kam Jones rush for 84 yards for a TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 11:31UTSA +9%
Sean Ianno 41 yard field goal GOOD
- Q2 0:00UTSA +7%
Cody Green pass incomplete to Thomas Roberson, broken up by Triston Wade
- Q2 11:25TLSA +6%
Cody Green pass complete to Conner Floyd for 3 yards to the Tulsa 43, tackled by Triston Wade and Crosby Adams III
FAQ
What was the final score of UTSA vs. Tulsa?
UTSA 34, Tulsa 15.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TLSA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| UTSA | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| 400 | Total yards | 378 |
| 114 | Passing yards | 221 |
| 286 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 16 | First downs | 20 |
| 3-12 | 3rd down | 9-20 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 16/20 | Comp/Att | 25/45 |
| 5.7 | Yards per pass | 4.9 |
| 7.3 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 2-20 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 30:38 | Possession | 29:22 |
Costliest call
Q3 4:20 UTSA punt on 4th & 3 at TLSA 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.21 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:52TLSATULSA Extra point GOOD.34–15
- Q4 3:52TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.34–14
- Q4 8:33UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.34–8
- Q4 8:33UTSATEXASSAN interception return for a touchdown.33–8
- Q4 11:36UTSATEXASSAN 31 yard field goal GOOD.27–8
- Q3 0:06TLSATULSA2-point conversion pass GOOD.24–8
- Q3 0:06TLSATULSA pass complete for a touchdown.24–6
- Q2 6:02UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.24–0
- Q2 6:02UTSATEXASSAN rush for a touchdown.23–0
- Q2 11:31UTSATEXASSAN 41 yard field goal GOOD.17–0
- Q1 4:17UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.14–0
- Q1 4:17UTSATEXASSAN punt return for a touchdown.13–0
- Q1 7:35UTSATEXASSAN Extra point GOOD.7–0
- Q1 7:35UTSATEXASSAN pass complete for a touchdown.6–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1435, UTSA Elo 1292 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -8.1 (71% to win) — 4.6 points clear of TLSA's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2013
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#57 of 93 in 2013 by biggest miss · #78 of 93 in 2013 by longest odds.
The 2013 upset archive →Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →