2023 season, 15 games in. Ratings and records refresh through the season; nothing here is a preseason guess. Preseason projections →
Best:
Michigan State#34 nationally
Median and standing are by Elo rating, measured against every conference with at least four rated teams.
Big Ten in orange, the rest of the country in grey. Elo rating, all 133 teams.
Showing 18 of 133 teams in the Big Ten. Ranks stay national — #1 means first in the country, not first here.
Poll darlings the model is not sold on.
2023 coverage: Elo 133/133 · SP+ 133/133 · FPI 133/133 · SRS 133/133 · CORE off/def 133/133 · schedule 133/133 · AP poll 45. Metrics with no teams yet this season are left out of the table rather than shown as a column of dashes.
Every rating here is bought in except CORE, which we build. How we build it →
Every other column on this page is bought in — Elo, SP+, FPI, SRS and the AP poll all arrive from CollegeFootballData. CORE is the exception. We build it here, from play-by-play, and it is published nowhere else.
It answers a narrower question than a power rating: how good is this team per play, once you remove the situations it happened to face and the opponents it happened to draw? Two teams can post identical yards per play when one of them ran its snaps at a three-score lead against the worst defenses on the schedule. That gap is most of the difference between the two numbers, and every raw per-play stat carries it.
So we remove both, in two stages. First the situation: each play’s expected value is predicted from game state alone — period, clock, score margin, down, distance, field position, home or away, pass or rush — with no team identity in the model at all, and what is left over is the part the situation does not explain. Then the opponent: offenses and defenses form one connected network over a season, so both sides are fitted at once by ridge regression rather than credited separately. Ridge specifically, because in September the schedule graph is barely connected and an unregularised fit hands a huge rating to whoever beat an overmatched opener.
Reported in points per 100 qualifying plays, above average. Offense is better when high, defense when low. Overtime, garbage time, FBS-vs-FCS games, special teams and non-scrimmage plays are all excluded.
⚠ CORE is a measurement, not a forecast. It says what a team has already done per play, adjusted. It does not say who wins next week — that is a separate model, and the two are kept as separate objects on purpose. Full method →

| 3‑91‑8 conf |
| Big Ten#2 |
| 1343 |
| D107O75 |
| #1211 gm |
| 612 up 2 places since last week | Rutgers | 7‑63‑6 conf | Big Ten#3 | 1441 | D48O90 | #2012 gm |
| 641 down 1 places since last week | Minnesota | 6‑73‑6 conf | Big Ten#4 | 1488 | D61O98 | #4813 gm |
| 652 down 2 places since last week | Purdue | 4‑83‑6 conf | Big Ten#5 | 1489 | D87O58 | #3112 gm |
| 707 up 7 places since last week | Northwestern | 8‑55‑4 conf | Big Ten#6 | 1498 | D40O104 | #4912 gm |
| 712 down 2 places since last week | Illinois | 5‑73‑6 conf | Big Ten#7 | 1504 | D79O35 | #5212 gm |
| 731 down 1 places since last week | Nebraska | 5‑73‑6 conf | Big Ten#8 | 1511 | D21O83 | #6612 gm |
| 8221 down 21 places since last week | Iowa | 10‑47‑3 conf | Big Ten#9 | 1575 | D3O132 | #4114 gm |
| 896 up 6 places since last week | UCLA | 8‑54‑5 conf | Big Ten#10 | 1602 | D6O93 | #6812 gm |
| 975 up 5 places since last week | Wisconsin | 7‑65‑4 conf | Big Ten#11 | 1631 | D28O59 | #6013 gm |
| 1088 up 8 places since last week | Maryland | 8‑54‑5 conf | Big Ten#12 | 1695 | D20O28 | #5612 gm |
| 1104 up 4 places since last week | USC | 8‑55‑4 conf | Big Ten#13 | 1723 | D100O5 | #3513 gm |
| 1221 up 1 places since last week | Washington | 14‑110‑0 conf | Big Ten#14 | 1879 | D23O8 | #715 gm |
| 1264 down 4 places since last week | Penn State | 10‑37‑2 conf | Big Ten#15 | 2000 | D4O34 | #4212 gm |
| 1292 down 2 places since last week | Ohio State | 11‑28‑1 conf | Big Ten#16 | 2065 | D1O10 | #612 gm |
| 1314 up 4 places since last week | Oregon | 12‑28‑2 conf | Big Ten#17 | 2106 | D11O2 | #6213 gm |
| 1321 down 1 places since last week | Michigan | 15‑010‑0 conf | Big Ten#18 | 2210 | D2O9 | #3215 gm |