Who has to play well

AnalysisAll college football →

Every other player number on this site is a level — yards, EPA, a projection. This one is a slope: how far a team’s win probability moves between one of its players having a bad day and a good one. Week 4, 58 games, 762 offensive players.

It is not a prediction that anybody will play well. Per-play efficiency barely carries from one season to the next, so we do not forecast a player’s level and this page never tries to. What it measures is how much it matters.

PositionAllQBRBWRTE

#	Player	Bad–good	Win prob. swing	If out
1	Roman GaglianoQBMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	176–270passing yards	15.9	1.7
2	Trey OwensQBArkansas State vs Kennesaw State	163–289passing yards	15.8	2.7
3	Micah AlejadoQBHawai'i at Wyoming	230–350passing yards	15.7	4.9
4	Jared CurtisQBVanderbilt at Auburn	119–262passing yards	15.3	1.6
5	Keldric LusterQBBall State at Kent State	97–192passing yards	13.4	2.7
6	EJ ColsonQBUTEP vs Oregon State	85–222passing yards	13.0	2.5
7	Ryder BurtonQBUAB vs Navy	103–191passing yards	12.8	3.3
8	Tyler HughesQBWyoming vs Hawai'i	127–224passing yards	12.4	3.8
9	Bishop DavenportQBSouth Alabama at Kentucky	119–243passing yards	12.2	2.7
10	Davis WarrenQBStanford vs Georgia Tech	171–286passing yards	12.1	3.2
11	Baylor HayesQBTulsa at Arkansas	152–259passing yards	12.0	0.2
12	William Watson IIIQBMassachusetts at Sacramento State	120–216passing yards	11.6	3.2
13	Giovanni LopezQBWake Forest at Louisville	172–287passing yards	11.6	5.0
14	Will CrowderQBTroy at Utah State	135–239passing yards	11.3	4.0
15	Dru DeshieldsQBKent State vs Ball State	100–228passing yards	11.3	3.7
16	Jaden CraigQBTCU at UCF	211–333passing yards	11.3	4.5
17	Cibastian BroughtonQBAkron vs UNLV	104–228passing yards	11.1	2.7
18	Caden VeltkampQBFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe	243–359passing yards	11.1	4.9
19	Caden PinnickQBWashington State vs Arizona	118–235passing yards	10.6	3.7
20	Deshawn PurdieQBLiberty at Coastal Carolina	88–165passing yards	10.3	2.2
21	Malik WashingtonQBMaryland vs UCLA	219–332passing yards	9.8	1.3
22	Tait ReynoldsQBClemson at California	122–258passing yards	9.6	1.5
23	Cole GonzalesQBCharlotte vs Louisiana	108–212passing yards	9.4	2.4
24	Kalieb OsborneQBUConn at Miami (OH)	103–201passing yards	9.3	2.5
25	Jaron-Keawe SagapoluteleQBCalifornia vs Clemson	206–326passing yards	9.3	1.6
26	Deuce BaileyQBCoastal Carolina vs Liberty	166–277passing yards	9.3	3.3
27	Alessio MilivojevicQBMichigan State vs Nebraska	108–221passing yards	9.3	—
28	Colton JosephQBWisconsin at Penn State	148–261passing yards	9.2	5.9
29	Maddux MadsenQBBoise State at Western Michigan	173–271passing yards	9.1	5.9
30	Camden ColemanQBJames Madison at Old Dominion	102–232passing yards	9.1	2.5
31	David McCombQBMiami (OH) vs UConn	158–250passing yards	9.1	2.7
32	Jayden DenegalQBSan Diego State at Toledo	104–209passing yards	8.8	2.4
33	Austin SimmonsQBMissouri at Mississippi State	95–202passing yards	8.8	5.7
34	Anthony ColandreaQBNebraska at Michigan State	176–285passing yards	8.7	4.3
35	Liam SzarkaQBAir Force at Nevada	51–103passing yards	8.5	4.9
36	Ethan GrunkemeyerQBVirginia Tech at Boston College	163–271passing yards	8.5	3.5
37	Cameran BrownQBGeorgia State vs Northern Illinois	134–240passing yards	8.4	3.2
38	JC FrenchQBCincinnati vs Kansas State	141–262passing yards	8.4	4.0
39	Jackson ArnoldQBUNLV at Akron	127–243passing yards	8.3	2.5
40	Mason McKenzieQBBoston College vs Virginia Tech	188–276passing yards	8.3	2.7
41	John MateerQBOklahoma at Georgia	172–266passing yards	8.1	4.6
42	Jackson SharmanQBSacramento State vs Massachusetts	114–204passing yards	8.0	1.4
43	Alberto MendozaQBGeorgia Tech at Stanford	102–180passing yards	7.8	2.7
44	Julian LewisQBColorado at Baylor	116–250passing yards	7.7	1.5
45	Broc LowryQBWestern Michigan vs Boise State	98–192passing yards	7.7	3.3
46	Bryce UnderwoodQBMichigan vs Iowa	122–236passing yards	7.6	3.8
47	Grady BrosterhousQBUtah State vs Troy	109–211passing yards	7.5	3.2
48	Nico IamaleavaQBUCLA at Maryland	147–246passing yards	7.4	4.3
49	Michael Hawkins Jr.QBWest Virginia vs Oklahoma State	94–179passing yards	7.2	2.9
50	Jaylen RaynorQBIowa State vs Utah	115–216passing yards	7.2	3.6
51	Rickie CollinsQBKennesaw State at Arkansas State	132–232passing yards	7.2	2.1
52	Michael Van Buren Jr.QBSouth Florida at Bowling Green	122–250passing yards	7.1	0.1
53	Arch ManningQBTexas at Tennessee	206–297passing yards	7.1	4.6
54	Alonza BarnettQBUCF vs TCU	148–253passing yards	6.9	—
55	Hauss HejnyQBColorado State at UTSA	112–250passing yards	6.8	5.3
56	Marcel ReedQBTexas A&M at LSU	206–288passing yards	6.8	4.9
57	Trinidad ChamblissQBOle Miss at Florida	236–349passing yards	6.8	3.4
58	Malachi SingletonQBApp State at NC State	132–237passing yards	6.6	0.6
59	Drew MestemakerQBOklahoma State at West Virginia	222–321passing yards	6.6	4.9
60	John Alan RichterQBToledo vs San Diego State	135–260passing yards	6.5	1.8
61	Nick MinicucciQBDelaware at Virginia	211–328passing yards	6.4	3.6
62	Jayden MandalQBFresno State vs Rice	141–263passing yards	6.2	2.2
63	Ajani SheppardQBTemple vs Army	77–174passing yards	6.2	2.4
64	Taron DickensQBNorthern Illinois at Georgia State	103–195passing yards	6.2	3.0
65	Lanorris SellersQBSouth Carolina at Alabama	153–258passing yards	6.0	3.9
66	Braden AtkinsonQBOregon State at UTEP	235–322passing yards	6.0	0.4
67	Devon DampierQBUtah at Iowa State	171–282passing yards	5.9	4.8
68	Carter JonesQBNevada vs Air Force	96–195passing yards	5.9	2.0
69	Max JohnsonQBGeorgia Southern vs Houston	161–264passing yards	5.8	2.4
70	Kamario TaylorQBMississippi State vs Missouri	118–222passing yards	5.7	3.0
71	Austin CarlisleQBUL Monroe vs Florida Atlantic	84–169passing yards	5.5	0.6
72	Kadin SemonzaQBTulane vs Southern Miss	131–239passing yards	5.5	0.5
73	Luke MogaQBNew Mexico at New Mexico State	60–132passing yards	5.3	2.3
74	Noah FifitaQBArizona at Washington State	207–315passing yards	5.3	4.8
75	Owen McCownQBUTSA vs Colorado State	163–290passing yards	5.3	3.5
76	Drake LindseyQBMinnesota at Washington	181–270passing yards	5.3	4.1
77	Jay KastantinQBBowling Green vs South Florida	100–207passing yards	5.2	2.7
78	Conner WeigmanQBHouston at Georgia Southern	154–271passing yards	5.2	5.4
79	Caden CreelQBJacksonville State vs Middle Tennessee	107–217passing yards	5.1	3.1
80	Trey HeddenQBNew Mexico State vs New Mexico	207–281passing yards	5.1	1.4

How the number is built

Four steps. His expected production in this game, from his usage share, his team’s volume and the way volume swings with the score. Then his plausible range around it — the 25th to 75th percentile of what players at his volume actually produce against expectation, blended with his own record as he accumulates games. Then that range is converted to points of scoring margin by his share of his unit’s ordinary game-to-game swing. Then the game is re-simulated at both ends.

Why positions are comparable. Passing yards, carries and catches are never compared to each other. Each is converted into points of scoring margin and then into win probability inside the same game’s simulation, and the win-probability swing is what this page ranks. That is also why quarterbacks sit at the top: they are genuinely responsible for more of a passing game than any one receiver, not because their stat line is bigger.

What it does not cover

Offensive players only. There is no per-defender leverage model on this site yet, so no edge rusher or cornerback appears here. A board that ranked only offense while implying it ranked everybody would be the more misleading of the two options.

A running quarterback’s carries are scored with his passing, not with the run game, so a true dual-threat is understated. And team-mates’ production is treated as independent when it partly is not — targets moving between two receivers is noise that cancels for the offense as a whole, which leaves the receiving side slightly overstated against the thrower.

FBS against FBS only. Rebuilt weekly; this board was generated 2026-09-25.