Who has to play well

AnalysisAll college football →

Every other player number on this site is a level — yards, EPA, a projection. This one is a slope: how far a team’s win probability moves between one of its players having a bad day and a good one. Week 4, 58 games, 762 offensive players.

It is not a prediction that anybody will play well. Per-play efficiency barely carries from one season to the next, so we do not forecast a player’s level and this page never tries to. What it measures is how much it matters.

PositionAllQBRBWRTE

#	Player	Bad–good	Win prob. swing	If out
1	Tiaquelin MimsWRUAB vs Navy	26–80receiving yards	4.8	0.1
2	Jesse LegreeWROregon State at UTEP	52–130receiving yards	4.8	0.1
3	Cam'Ron LacyWRMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	45–95receiving yards	4.5	0.1
4	TK KeyesWRTroy at Utah State	25–87receiving yards	4.2	0.1
5	Jordan AllenWRGeorgia Tech at Stanford	18–75receiving yards	4.2	0.1
6	Audric HarrisWRHawai'i at Wyoming	12–72receiving yards	4.1	—
7	Kainoa CarvalhoWRHawai'i at Wyoming	37–96receiving yards	4.0	0.1
8	Tama UiliataWRHawai'i at Wyoming	24–82receiving yards	3.9	0.1
9	Easton MesserWRFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe	63–132receiving yards	3.8	0.2
10	Ryan WingoWRTexas at Tennessee	29–92receiving yards	3.7	—
11	EJ ReidWRUAB vs Navy	38–84receiving yards	3.6	0.1
12	Hunter SummersWRArkansas State vs Kennesaw State	16–74receiving yards	3.6	—
13	Darius CopelandWRLiberty at Coastal Carolina	18–61receiving yards	3.6	—
14	Markus AllenWRMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	17–62receiving yards	3.6	0.1
15	Isaiah SategnaWROklahoma at Georgia	33–97receiving yards	3.5	0.1
16	Makai JacksonWRLiberty at Coastal Carolina	23–66receiving yards	3.4	0.1
17	Mario CraverWRTexas A&M at LSU	43–100receiving yards	3.4	0.1
18	Chase HendricksWRCalifornia vs Clemson	63–131receiving yards	3.3	0.2
19	John MontagueWRBoston College vs Virginia Tech	35–89receiving yards	3.2	0.1
20	C.J. SmithWRUAB vs Navy	17–60receiving yards	3.1	—
21	Justin BowickWROklahoma State at West Virginia	17–81receiving yards	3.0	0.1
22	Wyatt YoungWROklahoma State at West Virginia	36–100receiving yards	3.0	0.1
23	Trell HarrisWROklahoma at Georgia	23–81receiving yards	2.9	0.1
24	Caden HighWRStanford vs Georgia Tech	23–81receiving yards	2.8	0.1
25	Onterrio Smith Jr.WRSacramento State vs Massachusetts	22–75receiving yards	2.8	0.1
26	Brendan JenkinsWRSouth Alabama at Kentucky	20–75receiving yards	2.7	0.1
27	Na'eem Abdul-Rahim GladdingWRMaryland vs UCLA	48–113receiving yards	2.6	0.1
28	Akeem WrightWRBoise State at Western Michigan	21–74receiving yards	2.6	0.1
29	Sean WilsonWRDelaware at Virginia	39–114receiving yards	2.6	—
30	Jeremiah KogerWRAuburn vs Vanderbilt	21–78receiving yards	2.6	0.1
31	Cayden LeeWRMissouri at Mississippi State	23–78receiving yards	2.5	0.1
32	Damarion WittenWRMiami (OH) vs UConn	12–60receiving yards	2.5	—
33	Jaden BrayWRWest Virginia vs Oklahoma State	20–69receiving yards	2.5	0.1
34	Joseph Griffin Jr.WRMassachusetts at Sacramento State	21–64receiving yards	2.5	0.1
35	Tyrell HenryWRWisconsin at Penn State	22–82receiving yards	2.4	0.1
36	Oran Singleton Jr.WRTulsa at Arkansas	17–66receiving yards	2.4	0.1
37	Ashton HollinsWRGeorgia Southern vs Houston	20–84receiving yards	2.4	0.1
38	Howard KinchenWRTroy at Utah State	32–80receiving yards	2.4	0.1
39	Maleek HugginsWRMiami (OH) vs UConn	18–65receiving yards	2.4	0.1
40	Rasean JonesWRBoise State at Western Michigan	45–95receiving yards	2.4	0.1
41	Parker FulghumWRUL Monroe vs Florida Atlantic	5–61receiving yards	2.3	—
42	Kelby ValsinWRFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe	53–104receiving yards	2.3	0.1
43	Javarius GreenWRBoston College vs Virginia Tech	19–64receiving yards	2.3	—
44	Jacory Barney Jr.WRNebraska at Michigan State	25–82receiving yards	2.3	—
45	Chauncy CobbWRArkansas State vs Kennesaw State	34–82receiving yards	2.3	0.1
46	Carlos HernandezWRWake Forest at Louisville	45–95receiving yards	2.2	—
47	Ty HardingWRMassachusetts at Sacramento State	33–74receiving yards	2.2	0.1
48	Dawson PoughWRBoston College vs Virginia Tech	18–62receiving yards	2.2	—
49	Andrew MarshWRMichigan vs Iowa	27–89receiving yards	2.2	0.1
50	Josh RodriguezWROld Dominion vs James Madison	18–68receiving yards	2.2	0.1
51	Chris Durr Jr.WRMaryland vs UCLA	55–108receiving yards	2.2	0.2
52	Neo CliftonWRMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	20–56receiving yards	2.2	0.1
53	Gentz HilburnWRAkron vs UNLV	22–75receiving yards	2.2	0.1
54	Bailen GeorgeWRNew Mexico at New Mexico State	18–64receiving yards	2.1	0.1
55	DJ EppsWRWest Virginia vs Oklahoma State	22–69receiving yards	2.1	—
56	Jack FoleyWRWake Forest at Louisville	32–80receiving yards	2.1	0.1
57	Tyler KingWRNew Mexico State vs New Mexico	43–89receiving yards	2.1	0.1
58	Dalen PensonWRGeorgia Tech at Stanford	39–77receiving yards	2.1	0.1
59	Jamarion McDougleWRBall State at Kent State	14–47receiving yards	2.0	—
60	Traylon RayWROle Miss at Florida	23–88receiving yards	2.0	0.2
61	Isaiah ThackerWRBall State at Kent State	18–51receiving yards	2.0	—
62	Emmett Mosley VWRTexas at Tennessee	25–69receiving yards	2.0	0.1
63	Mikey MatthewsWRUCLA at Maryland	20–71receiving yards	2.0	—
64	Cam ColemanWRTexas at Tennessee	37–81receiving yards	2.0	0.1
65	Matt LongWRAir Force at Nevada	11–37receiving yards	2.0	—
66	Jonanthony HallWRStanford vs Georgia Tech	11–58receiving yards	2.0	—
67	JJ BuchananWRMichigan vs Iowa	26–80receiving yards	1.9	—
68	Matthew ColemanWRSacramento State vs Massachusetts	21–65receiving yards	1.9	0.1
69	Jaylen HamptonWRCharlotte vs Louisiana	20–71receiving yards	1.9	0.1
70	Donovan OlugbodeWRMissouri at Mississippi State	34–82receiving yards	1.9	0.1
71	Jimmy CallowayWRTulsa at Arkansas	21–65receiving yards	1.9	—
72	Semaj MorganWRUCLA at Maryland	23–70receiving yards	1.9	—
73	Javon BrownWRUConn at Miami (OH)	19–66receiving yards	1.9	0.1
74	Javon RobinsonWRUtah State vs Troy	19–66receiving yards	1.9	—
75	Zach MundellWRArmy at Temple	10–35receiving yards	1.9	—
76	Kaleb WebbWRMaryland vs UCLA	20–70receiving yards	1.8	—
77	Jamari PersonWRLiberty at Coastal Carolina	14–46receiving yards	1.8	—
78	Jaron TibbsWRKansas State at Cincinnati	26–84receiving yards	1.8	0.1
79	Jaden BarnesWRCharlotte vs Louisiana	37–87receiving yards	1.8	0.2
80	Javon RossWRTulsa at Arkansas	28–70receiving yards	1.8	0.1

How the number is built

Four steps. His expected production in this game, from his usage share, his team’s volume and the way volume swings with the score. Then his plausible range around it — the 25th to 75th percentile of what players at his volume actually produce against expectation, blended with his own record as he accumulates games. Then that range is converted to points of scoring margin by his share of his unit’s ordinary game-to-game swing. Then the game is re-simulated at both ends.

Why positions are comparable. Passing yards, carries and catches are never compared to each other. Each is converted into points of scoring margin and then into win probability inside the same game’s simulation, and the win-probability swing is what this page ranks. That is also why quarterbacks sit at the top: they are genuinely responsible for more of a passing game than any one receiver, not because their stat line is bigger.

What it does not cover

Offensive players only. There is no per-defender leverage model on this site yet, so no edge rusher or cornerback appears here. A board that ranked only offense while implying it ranked everybody would be the more misleading of the two options.

A running quarterback’s carries are scored with his passing, not with the run game, so a true dual-threat is understated. And team-mates’ production is treated as independent when it partly is not — targets moving between two receivers is noise that cancels for the offense as a whole, which leaves the receiving side slightly overstated against the thrower.

FBS against FBS only. Rebuilt weekly; this board was generated 2026-09-25.