Who has to play well

AnalysisAll college football →

Every other player number on this site is a level — yards, EPA, a projection. This one is a slope: how far a team’s win probability moves between one of its players having a bad day and a good one. Week 4, 58 games, 762 offensive players.

It is not a prediction that anybody will play well. Per-play efficiency barely carries from one season to the next, so we do not forecast a player’s level and this page never tries to. What it measures is how much it matters.

PositionAllQBRBWRTE

#	Player	Bad–good	Win prob. swing	If out
1	Qwantavius WigginsRBGeorgia State vs Northern Illinois	1–79rushing yards	9.2	0.2
2	Braylon McReynoldsRBUAB vs Navy	32–83rushing yards	7.5	0.2
3	Jaheim MerriweatherRBTroy at Utah State	23–76rushing yards	7.2	0.2
4	Micah FordRBStanford vs Georgia Tech	46–102rushing yards	6.9	0.2
5	Jamal RuleRBNebraska at Michigan State	44–93rushing yards	6.8	0.3
6	Devon RiceRBHawai'i at Wyoming	25–63rushing yards	6.5	0.2
7	Cam CookRBWest Virginia vs Oklahoma State	76–144rushing yards	6.5	0.6
8	Curtis Kimmons IVRBMassachusetts at Sacramento State	16–63rushing yards	6.3	0.2
9	Wayne KnightRBUCLA at Maryland	39–106rushing yards	6.2	0.3
10	Telly Johnson Jr.RBNorthern Illinois at Georgia State	42–95rushing yards	6.0	0.2
11	Dylan RileyRBBoise State at Western Michigan	63–124rushing yards	6.0	0.3
12	Trequan JonesRBTulsa at Arkansas	20–84rushing yards	5.8	0.2
13	Keenan PhillipsRBSouth Alabama at Kentucky	40–91rushing yards	5.8	0.2
14	Khamani AlexanderRBCharlotte vs Louisiana	22–78rushing yards	5.8	0.3
15	Javion KinnardRBSan Diego State at Toledo	23–89rushing yards	5.8	0.2
16	Sitani MikaeleRBHawai'i at Wyoming	20–55rushing yards	5.7	0.2
17	Antonio MartinRBMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	27–73rushing yards	5.7	0.3
18	Roderick Robinson IIRBUAB vs Navy	39–84rushing yards	5.6	0.3
19	Justice HaynesRBGeorgia Tech at Stanford	66–119rushing yards	5.6	0.5
20	Deuce LawrenceRBWake Forest at Louisville	32–75rushing yards	5.3	0.3
21	TJ HortonRBBall State at Kent State	19–66rushing yards	5.3	0.1
22	Jai'Den ThomasRBUNLV at Akron	42–102rushing yards	5.0	0.3
23	Tavorus JonesRBUTEP vs Oregon State	24–70rushing yards	5.0	0.2
24	Gavin GriffinRBTroy at Utah State	44–88rushing yards	5.0	0.3
25	Owen AllenRBAir Force at Nevada	40–95rushing yards	5.0	0.3
26	Markell HolmanRBWyoming vs Hawai'i	25–80rushing yards	4.9	0.2
27	Peyton JonesRBLiberty at Coastal Carolina	27–71rushing yards	4.8	0.2
28	Jeremy PayneRBTCU at UCF	43–99rushing yards	4.8	0.4
29	James JonesRBNew Mexico State vs New Mexico	39–92rushing yards	4.6	0.4
30	Camryn EdwardsRBMichigan State vs Nebraska	65–122rushing yards	4.6	0.6
31	Ty Clark IIIRBWake Forest at Louisville	17–57rushing yards	4.6	0.2
32	Nick HermanRBJames Madison at Old Dominion	19–82rushing yards	4.5	0.3
33	Javen JacobsRBUtah State vs Troy	19–70rushing yards	4.4	0.2
34	Jordan GantRBAkron vs UNLV	37–92rushing yards	4.4	0.3
35	Daylan SmothersRBTexas at Tennessee	45–96rushing yards	4.3	0.4
36	Samuel HarrisRBWyoming vs Hawai'i	28–79rushing yards	4.2	0.2
37	Adam MohammedRBCalifornia vs Clemson	41–90rushing yards	4.2	0.3
38	Lucky SuttonRBSan Diego State at Toledo	62–120rushing yards	4.1	0.5
39	Kam DavisRBLiberty at Coastal Carolina	24–64rushing yards	4.0	0.1
40	Tre GarrisonRBOregon State at UTEP	24–72rushing yards	4.0	0.2
41	PJ MartinRBSouth Alabama at Kentucky	43–84rushing yards	4.0	0.3
42	Jamal RobertsRBMissouri at Mississippi State	48–104rushing yards	4.0	0.4
43	Kirby VorheesRBWashington State vs Arizona	27–78rushing yards	3.9	0.2
44	Evan DickensRBBoston College vs Virginia Tech	57–104rushing yards	3.9	0.4
45	David MbadingaRBGeorgia Southern vs Houston	4–78rushing yards	3.9	0.2
46	Duke WatsonRBUCF vs TCU	16–82rushing yards	3.8	0.2
47	Sedrick AlexanderRBVanderbilt at Auburn	26–61rushing yards	3.8	0.2
48	Solomon BaggettRBArkansas State vs Kennesaw State	26–77rushing yards	3.7	0.2
49	Bryson RolandRBUL Monroe vs Florida Atlantic	34–87rushing yards	3.7	0.3
50	Jalen BuckleyRBWestern Michigan vs Boise State	44–99rushing yards	3.6	0.3
51	Abu Sama IIIRBWisconsin at Penn State	29–89rushing yards	3.6	0.1
52	Kewan LacyRBOle Miss at Florida	49–102rushing yards	3.6	0.3
53	Leonard FarrowRBFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe	22–62rushing yards	3.6	0.2
54	Jaylin LucasRBTulane vs Southern Miss	0–71rushing yards	3.6	0.1
55	Jayden BrownRBColorado State at UTSA	22–77rushing yards	3.5	0.2
56	Johnny Thompson Jr.RBBall State at Kent State	14–52rushing yards	3.5	0.2
57	Keyjuan BrownRBLouisville vs Wake Forest	9–100rushing yards	3.5	0.3
58	Lanear McCrary Jr.RBGeorgia State vs Northern Illinois	39–85rushing yards	3.5	0.3
59	Rueben OwensRBTexas A&M at LSU	38–81rushing yards	3.5	0.2
60	Aiden FloraRBIowa State vs Utah	35–92rushing yards	3.4	0.3
61	Sire GainesRBBoise State at Western Michigan	42–89rushing yards	3.4	0.4
62	Derrick JamesonRBUL Monroe vs Florida Atlantic	19–70rushing yards	3.4	0.2
63	Kamari MoultonRBIowa at Michigan	45–107rushing yards	3.4	0.3
64	Latrelle MurrellRBKennesaw State at Arkansas State	20–69rushing yards	3.4	0.2
65	Jo'Nathan SilverRBDelaware at Virginia	24–88rushing yards	3.2	0.3
66	Dominic KelleyRBNevada vs Air Force	27–70rushing yards	3.2	0.2
67	King MillerRBUSC vs Oregon	46–106rushing yards	3.2	0.2
68	Kenji ChristianRBUConn at Miami (OH)	25–62rushing yards	3.1	0.2
69	Jaquari LewisRBApp State at NC State	34–81rushing yards	3.1	0.2
70	Ethan ErvinRBFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe	28–63rushing yards	3.0	0.2
71	Malachi HosleyRBGeorgia Tech at Stanford	20–59rushing yards	3.0	0.2
72	Isaiah EneRBSacramento State vs Massachusetts	23–63rushing yards	3.0	0.2
73	Jadan BaughRBFlorida vs Ole Miss	71–131rushing yards	3.0	0.3
74	Elijah FaulknerRBMassachusetts at Sacramento State	26–59rushing yards	2.9	0.1
75	Mason BlakemoreRBKent State vs Ball State	22–62rushing yards	2.9	0.2
76	Damari AlstonRBTulsa at Arkansas	34–78rushing yards	2.8	0.2
77	Raleek BrownRBTexas at Tennessee	41–82rushing yards	2.8	0.3
78	Caleb HawkinsRBOklahoma State at West Virginia	66–118rushing yards	2.8	0.6
79	Jamarice WilderRBSouthern Miss at Tulane	19–70rushing yards	2.7	0.2
80	TJ Thomas Jr.RBMinnesota at Washington	15–72rushing yards	2.7	0.2

How the number is built

Four steps. His expected production in this game, from his usage share, his team’s volume and the way volume swings with the score. Then his plausible range around it — the 25th to 75th percentile of what players at his volume actually produce against expectation, blended with his own record as he accumulates games. Then that range is converted to points of scoring margin by his share of his unit’s ordinary game-to-game swing. Then the game is re-simulated at both ends.

Why positions are comparable. Passing yards, carries and catches are never compared to each other. Each is converted into points of scoring margin and then into win probability inside the same game’s simulation, and the win-probability swing is what this page ranks. That is also why quarterbacks sit at the top: they are genuinely responsible for more of a passing game than any one receiver, not because their stat line is bigger.

What it does not cover

Offensive players only. There is no per-defender leverage model on this site yet, so no edge rusher or cornerback appears here. A board that ranked only offense while implying it ranked everybody would be the more misleading of the two options.

A running quarterback’s carries are scored with his passing, not with the run game, so a true dual-threat is understated. And team-mates’ production is treated as independent when it partly is not — targets moving between two receivers is noise that cancels for the offense as a whole, which leaves the receiving side slightly overstated against the thrower.

FBS against FBS only. Rebuilt weekly; this board was generated 2026-09-25.