Who has to play well

AnalysisAll college football →

Every other player number on this site is a level — yards, EPA, a projection. This one is a slope: how far a team’s win probability moves between one of its players having a bad day and a good one. Week 4, 58 games, 762 offensive players.

It is not a prediction that anybody will play well. Per-play efficiency barely carries from one season to the next, so we do not forecast a player’s level and this page never tries to. What it measures is how much it matters.

PositionAllQBRBWRTE

#	Player	Bad–good	Win prob. swing	If out
1	Kevin Roche Jr.TEGeorgia Tech at Stanford	28–78receiving yards	3.2	0.1
2	Kyle FrendtTEWyoming vs Hawai'i	10–57receiving yards	2.8	—
3	Rocky BeersTEOklahoma at Georgia	19–73receiving yards	2.4	0.1
4	Kari AshleyTETCU at UCF	42–100receiving yards	2.3	0.1
5	Brady CloughTEBoston College vs Virginia Tech	18–63receiving yards	2.2	0.1
6	Mason MiniTECalifornia vs Clemson	22–78receiving yards	2.2	0.1
7	Fabian RogoschTETroy at Utah State	17–58receiving yards	2.0	0.1
8	Jayvontay ConnerTEVanderbilt at Auburn	17–66receiving yards	1.9	0.1
9	Dorian FlemingTEMaryland vs UCLA	19–68receiving yards	1.8	—
10	Jake WilsonTEWyoming vs Hawai'i	25–62receiving yards	1.8	0.1
11	Tayvion GallowayTEMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State	12–43receiving yards	1.8	—
12	Chris CorboTEGeorgia Tech at Stanford	14–50receiving yards	1.8	0.1
13	Jamel HowseTEApp State at NC State	22–77receiving yards	1.8	0.1
14	Cade KeithTENew Mexico at New Mexico State	21–62receiving yards	1.7	0.1
15	Darrin FugittTEApp State at NC State	24–78receiving yards	1.7	0.1
16	Tate HooverTEBall State at Kent State	14–44receiving yards	1.7	—
17	Jamari HarroldTEKennesaw State at Arkansas State	18–62receiving yards	1.6	0.1
18	Jeremiah ScobyTEBowling Green vs South Florida	19–76receiving yards	1.6	0.1
19	Jayden SavouryTEMichigan State vs Nebraska	24–69receiving yards	1.5	0.1
20	Benjamin BlackburnTEStanford vs Georgia Tech	20–55receiving yards	1.5	0.1
21	Eric OlsenTEOregon State at UTEP	21–63receiving yards	1.4	—
22	Caleb OdomTEOle Miss at Florida	20–71receiving yards	1.4	0.1
23	DJ VonnahmeTEIowa at Michigan	18–64receiving yards	1.4	0.1
24	Hayden HansenTEOklahoma at Georgia	14–50receiving yards	1.3	—
25	Xavier WatsonTEUConn at Miami (OH)	17–54receiving yards	1.3	—
26	Peter ClarkeTETemple vs Army	19–66receiving yards	1.3	0.1
27	Garrett OakleyTEKansas State at Cincinnati	19–67receiving yards	1.2	0.1
28	Elijah AlexanderTEAkron vs UNLV	14–57receiving yards	1.2	0.1
29	Benjamin BrahmerTEPenn State vs Wisconsin	6–69receiving yards	1.2	0.1
30	Jacob HarrisTEWisconsin at Penn State	8–47receiving yards	1.2	—
31	Brett NorfleetTEMissouri at Mississippi State	13–46receiving yards	1.2	—
32	Jason FowlerTENorthern Illinois at Georgia State	14–49receiving yards	1.2	—
33	Noah BenneeTEUtah at Iowa State	22–77receiving yards	1.1	0.1
34	Jaleel SkinnerTELouisville vs Wake Forest	19–54receiving yards	1.1	—
35	Emaree WinstonTETexas at Tennessee	15–53receiving yards	1.1	—
36	Devon TauaefaTEHawai'i at Wyoming	12–41receiving yards	1.1	—
37	Luke ReynoldsTEVirginia Tech at Boston College	35–77receiving yards	1.1	0.1
38	Keyan BurnettTEUNLV at Akron	15–49receiving yards	1.1	—
39	Grant HollierTEGeorgia State vs Northern Illinois	19–56receiving yards	1.0	0.1
40	Caden JensenTELouisiana at Charlotte	17–61receiving yards	1.0	—
41	D.C. TempleTEOregon State at UTEP	20–54receiving yards	1.0	0.1
42	Broderick PetersTESouthern Miss at Tulane	17–59receiving yards	1.0	0.1
43	Carson KolbTEOklahoma State at West Virginia	15–54receiving yards	1.0	0.1
44	Gavin GroverTECincinnati vs Kansas State	9–50receiving yards	1.0	—
45	Mark BowmanTEUSC vs Oregon	26–71receiving yards	1.0	0.1
46	Sam LeeTEToledo vs San Diego State	15–51receiving yards	0.9	—
47	Addison OstrengaTEIowa at Michigan	13–46receiving yards	0.9	—
48	Antonio JohnsonTEFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe	23–56receiving yards	0.9	0.1
49	Kamrean JohnsonTEWake Forest at Louisville	12–42receiving yards	0.9	—
50	Kelsey JohnsonTELiberty at Coastal Carolina	10–34receiving yards	0.8	—
51	Cash CheeksTEUTEP vs Oregon State	15–51receiving yards	0.8	—
52	Jake JohnsonTEAuburn vs Vanderbilt	15–51receiving yards	0.8	—
53	Jabari BushTEArkansas State vs Kennesaw State	13–44receiving yards	0.8	—
54	Cyrus EllisonTECoastal Carolina vs Liberty	14–48receiving yards	0.8	—
55	Scott Isacks IIITEUAB vs Navy	14–39receiving yards	0.8	—
56	Micah Riley-DuckerTETexas A&M at LSU	13–47receiving yards	0.8	—
57	Christian RossTEMiami (OH) vs UConn	10–36receiving yards	0.8	—
58	Leon Haughton Jr.TEOld Dominion vs James Madison	6–32receiving yards	0.8	—
59	Jaden PlattTEArkansas vs Tulsa	14–49receiving yards	0.8	—
60	Ka'Morreun PimptonTETCU at UCF	14–48receiving yards	0.7	—
61	Luke DehnickeTENorthwestern at Indiana	17–57receiving yards	0.7	—
62	Willie RodriguezTEKentucky vs South Alabama	24–64receiving yards	0.7	0.1
63	Brock ChappellTELouisiana at Charlotte	13–44receiving yards	0.7	—
64	Cole RuskTEArizona at Washington State	19–54receiving yards	0.7	0.1
65	Will AnciauxTEKansas State at Cincinnati	10–41receiving yards	0.7	—
66	Dylan WadeTEUCF vs TCU	16–56receiving yards	0.7	—
67	Cole KellerTEJames Madison at Old Dominion	18–50receiving yards	0.7	—
68	Ja'Ricous HairstonTEVirginia Tech at Boston College	11–42receiving yards	0.7	—
69	Ethan DavisTETennessee vs Texas	16–55receiving yards	0.7	0.1
70	Jason JeffaresTECharlotte vs Louisiana	16–45receiving yards	0.6	—
71	Ty LockwoodTEArkansas vs Tulsa	19–51receiving yards	0.6	0.1
72	Elijah SessomsTEDelaware at Virginia	13–47receiving yards	0.6	—
73	Reece AdkinsTEMassachusetts at Sacramento State	13–36receiving yards	0.6	—
74	Baron NaoneTEWashington vs Minnesota	25–76receiving yards	0.5	0.1
75	Pierce WalshTEMinnesota at Washington	14–47receiving yards	0.5	—
76	Rod GibbsTESouth Alabama at Kentucky	12–36receiving yards	0.5	—
77	Luke LindenmeyerTENebraska at Michigan State	17–45receiving yards	0.5	—
78	Patrick OvermyerTEHouston at Georgia Southern	22–66receiving yards	0.5	—
79	Christian BentancurTEClemson at California	11–43receiving yards	0.5	—
80	Trey'Dez GreenTELSU vs Texas A&M	37–87receiving yards	0.5	0.1

How the number is built

Four steps. His expected production in this game, from his usage share, his team’s volume and the way volume swings with the score. Then his plausible range around it — the 25th to 75th percentile of what players at his volume actually produce against expectation, blended with his own record as he accumulates games. Then that range is converted to points of scoring margin by his share of his unit’s ordinary game-to-game swing. Then the game is re-simulated at both ends.

Why positions are comparable. Passing yards, carries and catches are never compared to each other. Each is converted into points of scoring margin and then into win probability inside the same game’s simulation, and the win-probability swing is what this page ranks. That is also why quarterbacks sit at the top: they are genuinely responsible for more of a passing game than any one receiver, not because their stat line is bigger.

What it does not cover

Offensive players only. There is no per-defender leverage model on this site yet, so no edge rusher or cornerback appears here. A board that ranked only offense while implying it ranked everybody would be the more misleading of the two options.

A running quarterback’s carries are scored with his passing, not with the run game, so a true dual-threat is understated. And team-mates’ production is treated as independent when it partly is not — targets moving between two receivers is noise that cancels for the offense as a whole, which leaves the receiving side slightly overstated against the thrower.

FBS against FBS only. Rebuilt weekly; this board was generated 2026-09-25.