#17Tony Johnson

WR·Florida Atlantic·2023

Tony Johnson is a Versatile WR for Florida Atlantic. Tony's 2023 season produced 18.5 total EPA across 44 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tony Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

36 Receptions406 Rec yards4 Rec TD11.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume19
Explosiveness29
Consistency45
Pass-Down43

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency45th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.76 EPA/play in Wk 13 vs Rice (SP+ -10).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsMonmouth	W42-20	—	5	91	18.2	2	72	1.66
2	vsOhio	L10-17	-1.6	3	28	9.3	0	13	1.00
3	@Clemson	L14-48	10.5	3	13	4.3	0	9	-0.33
4	@Illinois	L17-23	-2.5	2	4	2.0	0	7	-0.07
6	vsTulsa	W20-17	-13.7	1	2	2.0	0	2	-0.34
7	@South Florida	W56-14	-6.6	8	131	16.4	1	47	0.95
8	vsUTSA	L10-36	5.4	2	1	0.5	0	5	-0.33
9	@Charlotte	W38-16	-21.4	1	6	6.0	0	6	0.27
10	@UAB	L42-45	-14.7	0	1	0.0	0	1	0.08
11	vsEast Carolina	L7-22	-12.8	5	24	4.8	0	6	-0.10
12	vsTulane	L8-24	2.8	4	56	14.0	0	30	0.22
13	@Rice	L21-24	-10.2	2	49	24.5	1	36	1.76

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

6.5%

Passing plays

11.2%

Rushing plays

0.9%

Standard downs

6.4%

Passing downs

6.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.47

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).