#10Taylen Green

QB·Arkansas·2025 2024 20226.1 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Taylen Green is a 3-year Dual-Threat QB for Arkansas. Taylen's 2024 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 518 plays — a developing rate for the QB. Production has trended downward season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Taylen Green's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

230/381 Comp/Att3153 Pass yards15 Pass TD9 INT60.4% Comp %

Rushing

602 Rush yards8 Rush TD156 Carries3.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat86
Consistency74
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Career trajectory:↓ Declining

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸Production has slipped season-over-season on adjusted value metrics.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.01 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Mississippi State (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsArkansas-Pine Bluff	W70-0	—	16/23	229	2	0	91.5	88	2	0.78
2	@Oklahoma State	L31-39	-2.6	26/45	416	1	1	58.1	61	0	0.28
3	vsUAB	W37-27	-11.3	11/26	161	0	1	50.8	96	2	0.16
4	@Auburn	W24-14	9.5	12/27	151	1	2	80.3	80	0	0.20
5	vsTexas A&M	L17-21	17.0	23/41	279	1	1	59.0	6	0	0.19
6	vsTennessee	W19-14	22.0	19/27	266	0	0	79.7	-5	0	0.22
8	vsLSU	L10-34	15.9	21/31	239	1	1	51.0	-10	0	0.29
9	@Mississippi State	W58-25	-4.1	23/29	314	5	1	90.4	79	1	1.01
10	vsOle Miss	L31-63	27.9	10/14	158	0	0	40.9	16	0	0.47
12	vsTexas	L10-20	24.1	17/25	149	0	1	50.6	-4	0	-0.17
13	vsLouisiana Tech	W35-14	-11.6	20/37	221	2	1	87.8	61	2	0.42
14	@Missouri	L21-28	14.0	21/35	229	0	0	75.1	53	0	0.20
20	vsTexas Tech	W39-26	4.3	11/21	341	2	0	95.9	81	1	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

58.7%

Passing plays

91.8%

Rushing plays

27.2%

Standard downs

51.3%

Passing downs

74.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2025 · 36 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Boise State	7.9	0.570	—	207.9
2024	Arkansas	6.1	0.410	-0.16	215.4
2025	Arkansas	8.1	0.428	+0.02	183.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.