#2Tanner Morgan

QB·Minnesota·201914.4 pts line value1st Round

Tanner Morgan is a Clutch Passer for Minnesota. Tanner's 2019 season ranks in the 93th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 364 plays — a elite rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tanner Morgan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

210/318 Comp/Att3253 Pass yards30 Pass TD7 INT66.0% Comp %

Rushing

-57 Rush yards1 Rush TD61 Carries-0.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency93
Volume100
Dual-Threat40
Consistency85
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)93th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency85th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among QBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.19 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Penn State (SP+ 24).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Blake Sims	Alabama	2014	473	0.696	15.4	329.4
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Dillon Gabriel	Oklahoma	2023	473	0.732	16.1	346.4
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6
Jayden Daniels	LSU	2023	461	0.783	17.5	360.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Dakota State	W28-21	—	13/18	176	1	1	62.9	8	0	0.44
2	@Fresno State	W38-35	-4.0	16/23	234	2	0	64.2	2	1	0.59
3	vsGeorgia Southern	W35-32	-4.5	19/31	289	3	1	81.1	-17	0	0.71
5	@Purdue	W38-31	-0.7	21/22	396	4	0	98.6	-28	0	0.95
6	vsIllinois	W40-17	0.6	9/17	155	3	1	40.3	-6	0	0.17
7	vsNebraska	W34-7	2.6	8/13	128	1	0	73.6	4	0	0.40
8	@Rutgers	W42-7	-14.6	15/28	245	2	0	80.2	1	0	0.46
9	vsMaryland	W52-10	-6.3	12/21	138	2	1	87.3	30	0	0.35
11	vsPenn State	W31-26	24.3	18/20	339	3	0	—	0	0	1.19
12	@Iowa	L19-23	16.7	25/36	368	1	0	—	-23	0	0.51
13	@Northwestern	W38-22	-5.5	15/23	211	4	1	—	-10	0	0.65
14	vsWisconsin	L17-38	20.3	20/37	296	2	1	—	-20	0	0.26
1	vsAuburn	W31-24	21.0	19/29	278	2	1	—	2	0	0.43

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

42.1%

Passing plays

98.8%

Rushing plays

6.5%

Standard downs

33.4%

Passing downs

61.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.40
Passing downs: 0.73
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.59 / 0.10

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2019 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.