#7Quentin Hayes

QB·Air Force·2024

Quentin Hayes is a Dual-Threat QB for Air Force. Quentin's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 164 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Quentin Hayes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

25/43 Comp/Att455 Pass yards3 Pass TD2 INT58.1% Comp %

Rushing

466 Rush yards7 Rush TD126 Carries3.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume90
Dual-Threat90
Consistency74
Clutch70

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.38 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.75 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs San Diego State (SP+ -15).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
3	@Baylor	L3-31	8.4	1/1	7	0	0	2.1	4	0	-0.12
6	vsNavy	L7-34	3.5	5/6	115	1	0	21.4	17	0	0.07
7	@New Mexico	L37-52	-14.8	4/7	79	0	0	43.3	103	1	0.53
10	@Army	L3-20	9.2	7/14	54	0	1	24.3	61	0	0.12
11	vsFresno State	W36-28	-3.8	2/6	14	1	0	72.2	91	2	0.37
12	vsOregon State	W28-0	-6.7	5/5	110	0	0	88.9	84	2	0.71
13	@Nevada	W22-19	-15.2	0/3	0	0	1	54.7	68	1	0.29
14	@San Diego State	W31-20	-15.4	1/1	76	1	0	84.5	38	1	0.75

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.6%

Passing plays

73.9%

Rushing plays

25.3%

Standard downs

26.8%

Passing downs

46.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.31
Passing downs: 0.46
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.35

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).