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Air Force

Air Force Falcons

Mountain West·1-1·
Compare
Elo
1424#83
SP+
1.1#69
FPI
-5.8
AP
NR
Next@ Nevada · Wk 4Win prob 63%Model -5.4
Talent #137 (272.4)Recruiting class #14157% production returning

Roster · 119 players

SO 44JR 43SR 30
#PlayerPosClHtWt
4Kemper HodgesQBSR6'0"245
5Evan MeddersQBSO5'10"210
7Cade SpradlingQBSO6'0"200
9Liam SzarkaQBJR5'11"190
11Josh JohnsonQBSR6'2"190
13Maguire MartinQBSR6'1"190
2Owen AllenRBSR5'11"215
21Chase FerrellRBSO5'6"170
26Jalen Rashad TurnerRBSR5'10"185
34Oswaldo MoralesRBSO5'9"210
44Rocco ContiRBSR5'8"190
24Luke RauhFBJR6'0"210
27Price DavisFBSO6'0"195
28Gage LaDueFBJR5'10"215
43Travis WoodFBJR5'10"225
45Omari EliasFBJR5'9"205
0Owen ChambersWRSR5'10"195
3Matt LongWRJR5'10"205
8Jonah DawsonWRJR5'9"170
10Adam HrynciwWRSR6'3"180
18Mason HayesWRJR5'11"210
19Grant WayneWRSR6'1"185
20Keegan SackWRSO5'10"210
25Harris VinsonWRSO6'0"205
29Sylas Maiava-AlaimaloWRSO5'9"195
30Major QuinWRSO5'10"185
33Mason LoweWRJR5'10"185
36Astin HangeWRJR5'10"175
83Isaac ThomasWRSO6'4"210
89Noah McNairWRSO6'0"205
53Griffin StalfortTESR6'2"290
80Simon KibbeeTESR6'6"250
81Dominic HenningTESO6'3"245
82Henry BarbischTESO6'5"250
85Mitchell BlakesleeTESR6'4"260
87Harry CaskeyTEJR6'2"240
51Rudy VarelaOLSR6'3"295
52Nathan ElwoodOLSR6'3"290
53Michael RayOLSO6'4"300
54Justus PeralesOLJR6'2"280
56Ian FisherOLSR6'3"285
57Brody SmithOLJR6'3"290
58TJ TarascioOLSR6'3"310
59Johnique ThomasOLJR6'0"295
62Jonny BrambilaOLJR6'3"300
63Eli CampbellOLSO6'2"310
64Caden RomoOLJR6'3"245
66Jake SulzbergerOLSO6'4"275
67Cole AndersonOLSO6'3"315
71Marcus RoserOLJR6'2"280
72Jon AshfordOLJR6'2"320
73Brandon NazworthOLJR6'3"290
75Alec FalkOLSR6'5"315
76Alex BoydOLSO6'4"280
77Peyton KnoebelOLJR6'4"300
78Gary LassleyOLSO6'4"300
55Luke VonderhaarOTSR6'4"285
18DeSean DavisDEJR6'3"225
34Jalen DavisDEJR6'3"220
48Antonio MenardDEJR6'1"230
50Grady ForsytheDEJR6'4"235
53Ryan LippeDESO6'4"250
84Samuel Rhoades VDEJR6'3"240
55Cullen DevineDLSO6'3"225
56Trace Williams-MitchelDLJR6'3"285
59Chaz BarnettDLJR6'5"260
90Muhammad AlcineDLSO6'2"255
92Connor VasekDLSO6'2"255
93Andrew TillettDLSR6'3"290
95Noah DanielsDLSO6'3"260
96Charlie GleasonDLSR6'4"235
97Bennett WilliamsDLJR6'2"285
98Christian KrietzerDLSO6'2"240
99Jayden OquendoDLSR6'2"285
0Luke FisherLBSR6'0"225
6Blake FletcherLBSR6'1"230
8Dallas DaleyLBSR6'1"215
30Isaac HubertLBSR6'1"225
32Andrew JurasekLBSO5'11"235
33Brody BujnochLBSR6'1"235
35Bryce BradenLBSO6'2"225
39Brodie MitchellLBJR6'1"205
41Sam OaklandLBSO6'2"225
42Brody WhitsonLBSR6'2"245
43Seth McFarlandLBSO6'0"235
44Jonah BowmanLBJR6'0"235
45Jaylin ReeseLBJR5'11"235
47Jake KeplerLBJR6'2"230
51Vinnie CanosaLBJR6'1"230
2Korey JohnsonDBJR6'0"195
3Kyle ChenDBJR6'0"200
4Mikhail SeikenDBJR5'11"190
5Roger Jones Jr.DBJR5'10"184
7Nick BeckwithDBJR6'0"205
10Jerome DrainDBSO6'3"190
12Jax GatesDBSO5'11"190
13Joseph KramlichDBSO5'10"175
14Tyshan MitchellDBSO5'10"170
16Jet WileyDBSR6'2"185
19Houston HendrixDBSR6'1"205
20JT TomesckoDBJR6'1"190
21Clayton HartDBSO6'1"195
22Ehimen OyamendanDBSO5'10"190
23Cade PatersonDBSO5'11"195
24Jordan Elie-StuartDBSO5'11"170
26Alexander PerezDBSO5'10"200
27Ethan StannardDBSO5'11"195
31Jayden MalbrancheDBSO5'11"180
36Max MustellDBSO5'10"175
37PJ WeaverDBSO6'0"175
58Nkongolo Wa-KalonjiDBSO6'1"225
39Jacob MedinaPKJR5'10"170
90Carter CremascoliPKSO5'11"210
91Rip PerezPSR6'2"200
94Will DuncanPJR6'0"220
98Rocco D'AngeloPJR5'11"180
46Jake HelmsLSJR6'0"210
—Mikey Inweh————
—Howard Fisher IV————

Team Statistics · per game, with national FBS rank

Points / game
33.0
scoring offense
Points allowed
19.0
scoring defense
Differential
+14.0
per game
Offense
Total yards / game
450.0#46
Yards / play
5.8#80
Passing yards / game
19.0#138
Rushing yards / game
431.0#2
First downs / game
28.0#17
3rd down %
60.0%#14
4th down %
100.0%#1
Time of possession
40:50#2
Defense
Yards allowed / game
107.0#1
Yards / play allowed
2.5#4
Pass yards allowed / game
53.0#4
Rush yards allowed / game
54.0#14
3rd down % allowed
27.3%#36
Sacks
1#104
Tackles for loss
2#130
Turnovers & Discipline
Turnover margin
+2#22
Takeaways
2#53
Giveaways
0#1
Penalties / game
8.0#100
Penalty yards / game
60.0#84

Rank is national among all FBS teams (#1 = best), oriented so higher rank = better even for defensive and discipline metrics. Bars show percentile.

Scouting Report · 2026 projection

heavily run-leaning

Air Force runs it: Troy Calhoun's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at defending the pass, and they are 138th at defending the run.

On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.

Air Force has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.

Projected strengths

  • Offensegetting stopped at the line
    #3
    projected
  • Offensesacks and tackles for loss
    #16
    projected

Projected soft spots

  • Defensethrowing it
    #138
    projected
  • Defenserunning it
    #138
    projected
  • Defensesurviving second and twelve
    #138
    projected

Each bar is where this team sits in the country. Before the season has produced enough football these are PROJECTIONS — last season regressed to the mean, plus talent, returning production, recruiting and whether the staff is the same one — and the season replaces them as it is played. Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.

2026 Season Projection

model win prob · 10 to play
7.5 – 4.5
projected final record (now 1–1)
Exp. wins left
6.5
of 10 games
Bowl odds
93%
reach 6 wins
Best odds
97%
vs San José State
Toughest
26%
vs Army

How the season could finish · 2026 · chance of each final win total · 10 games left

Every remaining game simulated from the model's win probability for it. Tallest bar is the single likeliest finish, not a prediction that it happens.

1234567891011
final winstallest bar = 28% chance
Likeliest finish 8-4 (28%)Bowl eligible 93% · marked on the axis at 6

Player Value

EPA contribution by position group + estimated NIL market value (derived from position rates and on-field production — not actual deal figures).

Unit Value — Total EPA
QBKemper Hodges, Liam Szarka +1
+13.9 EPA
RBOwen Allen, Rocco Conti +1
+4.5 EPA
WRAdam Hrynciw, Matt Long +2
+1.1 EPA
TESimon Kibbee
-0.3 EPA

Total EPA produced by each positional group this season. OL value is captured via the rush/pass efficiency of skill players; OL-specific EPA isn't separately reported.

The Five Factors

ranked vs. FBS · bar = better
Efficiency (PPA)
Off0.3774th#37
Def-0.2193rd#10
Explosiveness
Off1.0212th#122
Def1.1274th#37
Field position
Off73.075th#35
Def75.326th#103
Finishing (pts/opp)
Off4.8672nd#40
Def0.0099th#2
Turnovers
Won 2Lost 0
Margin +2

Opponent-adjusted efficiency

EPA/play vs. schedule
Offense
—
Defense
—
Off · pass
-0.401st#137
Off · rush
0.4988th#17

Pass vs. rush (PPA)

Rushing
Off0.4988th#17
Def-0.1168th#45
Passing
Off-0.401st#137
Def-0.1393rd#11

Trenches & disruption

Line yards (off)
4.19#10
2nd-level / open-field
1.51 / 0.73
Power / stuff (off)
100.0% / 6.1%
Havoc — total (def)
17.8%#59
Havoc — front 7 / DB
4.4% / 13.3%

Standard vs. passing downs

Pro
Std downs
Off0.43
Def-0.22
Pass downs
Off0.14
Def-0.20

PPA on each down type (off vs. def).

Opponent-adjusted by down

Pro
1st2nd3rd
Offense0.39#15-0.13#1130.73#49
Defense-0.23#33-0.52#30.25#49

Elo Trajectory

Duquesne@New Mexico
Elo rating 1424 → 1424+0 over season

Team Fingerprint · 2026 · 31 opponent-adjusted metrics · percentile vs 138 FBS teams

Plot these →
worst in FBSbest

Efficiency

  • Offense EPA/play0.4074th
  • Defense EPA/play allowed-0.2593rd
  • Offense success rate54%77th
  • Defense success rate allowed22%91st

Downs

  • Offense success — standard downs58%77th
  • Offense success — passing downs36%58th
  • Defense success allowed — standard downs27%88th
  • Defense success allowed — passing downs13%89th

Explosiveness

  • Offense explosiveness1.0012th
  • Defense explosiveness allowed1.168th
  • Offense explosiveness — standard downs0.9844th
  • Offense explosiveness — passing downs1.18th

Trenches

  • Offense line yards4.495th
  • Defense line yards allowed2.561st
  • Offense highlight yards0.6839th
  • Defense highlight yards allowed0.1578th
  • Offense power success1.099th
  • Defense power success allowed1.023rd
  • Offense stuff rate0.0496th
  • Defense stuff rate0.2574th

Third down

  • Third down conversion60%85th
  • Third down distance faced5.288th
  • Third down conversion allowed36%50th
  • Third down distance forced7.044th

Halves

  • Net success rate — first half0.1865th
  • Net success rate — second half0.3994th

Roster

  • Returning usage63%73rd
  • Returning EPA18673rd
  • Team talent composite2721st
  • Recruiting class rank1411st
  • Recruiting class points1161st

Every metric is opponent-adjusted and ranked so that higher is always better — a defensive rate that is good when low is ranked accordingly. Sack and tackle-for-loss composition are deliberately absent: their relationship to team quality is a measured null, so they carry a style rather than a rank, and they appear in the pressure signature instead.

Intelligence Report

⚡

Offensive DNA

Run-first offense performing above the national average
EPA/play
+0.371#37 · above avg
Pass EPA/play
-0.404#137
Rush EPA/play
+0.492#17
Explosiveness
1.016#122
Pts/opportunity
4.86#40
Success rate
51.8%

Rush efficiency edge: 0.896 EPA/play

🛡

Defensive Identity

Disruptive defense — top 8 nationally in EPA/play allowed
EPA/play allowed
-0.215#10 · elite
Havoc rate (total)
17.8%#59
Front-7 havoc
4.4%
DB havoc
13.3%
Big play rate allowed
1.121#37
Success rate allowed
24.3%

Disruption comes primarily from the secondary.

📊

Season Signature

33.0 PPG offense, 19.0 allowed — +14.0 margin/game
Points per game
33.0
Points allowed/game
19.0
Scoring margin/game
+14.0
Turnover margin
+2won 2 · lost 0
Production returning
57%
Talent rank (247)
#137

1-1 record through 2 games.

Team Shape · percentile vs. FBS · dashed = 50th

OFFENSE74thEXPLOSIVENESS12thFINISHING72thFIELD POS75thDEFENSE93thHAVOC58th50th100th
Offense
74th
Explosiveness
12th
Finishing
72th
Field Pos
75th
Defense
93th
Havoc
58th

Each axis = national percentile rank. 100th = best in FBS, 0th = worst. Defense and Havoc are oriented so higher = better.

CORE efficiency · situation and opponent removed

Points per 100 plays above average, after the game state is regressed out of every snap and the schedule is solved out across the whole league. The version of this team’s efficiency that can be compared to a team it never played.

Overall
-14.9
#127
Offense
-0.9
#68
Defense
+14.0
#137
Full CORE ratings →

National Landscape · 2026 FBS · offense vs. defense EPA/play

Each dot = one FBS team. Air Force is highlighted. Tap or hover a dot for details.

ELITEDEF. FORTRESSOFF. POWERHOUSEREBUILDING-0.100.00+0.10+0.20+0.30-0.050.00+0.10+0.20Offensive EPA/play← worsebetter →Defensive EPA allowed/play← worsebetter →

Similar Programs

Teams with the closest offense + defense efficiency profile to Air Force in 2026

by EPA/play distance
Kansas StateSP+ +12.7
Off EPA/play +0.314Def EPA/play -0.219Elo 1616
Match
97%
Notre DameSP+ +26.8
Off EPA/play +0.464Def EPA/play -0.225Elo 2021
Match
96%
New MexicoSP+ +4.4
Off EPA/play +0.301Def EPA/play -0.150Elo 1558
Match
95%
AlabamaSP+ +20.0
Off EPA/play +0.274Def EPA/play -0.174Elo 1823
Match
95%
Georgia SouthernSP+ -5.8
Off EPA/play +0.363Def EPA/play -0.315Elo 1376
Match
95%
James MadisonSP+ -0.3
Off EPA/play +0.303Def EPA/play -0.133Elo 1776
Match
95%

Similarity = normalized Euclidean distance on season offensive and defensive EPA/play. Teams within ±0.02 EPA/play on both units score >90%.

Program Trajectory · CORE rating · 2015–2026 · points per game vs an average FBS team

2015: +2.9, #59 of 1282016: +4.6, #48 of 1282017: -11.8, #103 of 1302018: -0.8, #72 of 1302019: +14.7, #21 of 1302020: +13.6, #20 of 1242021: +9.1, #45 of 1302022: +9.4, #34 of 1312023: +7.4, #39 of 1332024: -10.3, #98 of 1342025: -17.3, #119 of 1362026: -14.9, #127 of 138
20152026
Now -14.9 · #127 of 138Best +14.7 in 2019Worst -17.3 in 2025

Program History

recent seasons
YearOverallConfWin %xWLuck
20261-00-0
100%
1.0+0.0
20254-83-5
33%
4.9-0.9
20245-73-4
42%
6.0-1.0
20239-45-3
69%
10.7-1.7
202210-35-3
77%
10.9-0.9
202110-36-2
77%
10.1-0.1
20203-32-2
50%
4.7-1.7
201911-27-1
85%
10.9+0.1
20185-73-5
42%
6.4-1.4
20175-74-4
42%
4.4+0.6

xW = expected wins from per-game dominance. Luck = actual − expected (positive = won close games).

4.7%of 50,000 simulated 2026 seasons end with them in the field

0-0 so far, projected to finish 8.0-4.3. Wins the Mountain West in 15%.

If they finish with…

94%
0 losses
47%
1 loss
3.7%
2 losses
0.0%
3 losses
0%
4 losses

Their chance of making it at each final loss count. Better than even up to 0.

Win out and it is 94%. One bid goes to the best champion outside the four power leagues, so running the table only enters them into that argument.

up 0.9 points since preseason.

  • At 1 loss they are 47% where the average Mountain West team is 51%.
  • The Mountain West takes 0.23 bids in an average season.
  • One bid goes to the best champion outside the P4. They take it in 4.6% of seasons, having won their league in 90% of those.

Air Force’s own turning points

Points of playoff probability between winning and losing.

  • wk13at New Mexico11.3
  • wk7vs UNLV9.7
  • wk10at Army8.8
  • wk5vs Navy8.6
  • wk4at Nevada8.2
  • wk8at Wyoming6.1

Who to root for

Games Air Force is not in that move its odds most. Same units, much smaller scale.

  • wk9Notre Dame over Navy1.6
  • wk3Oklahoma over New Mexico1.1
  • wk9UCLA over Nevada1.0
  • wk9Arizona over Texas Tech0.9
  • wk8Washington State over Boise State0.9
  • wk4Temple over Army0.9
The full playoff picture →

Mountain West

0-0 in league play, projected 5.2-2.83 of 10 by title odds
15%
Wins the Mountain West
32%
Reaches the title game

The Mountain West sends its top two by conference winning percentage, head-to-head breaking a tie. The last berth is level on percentage in 35% of simulated seasons, so a tiebreaker decides it about that often.

  • wk13Air Force at New Mexico25.4
  • wk7UNLV at Air Force24.8
  • wk4Air Force at Nevada19.0
  • wk8Air Force at Wyoming14.6

Points of title probability riding on each result. The whole Mountain West race →

If not the playoff, then

85%
Bowl eligible
79%
Placed in a bowl
4.7%
In the playoff
16%
Season over in November

Air Force is 1-0 and needs 5 more wins from 11 games to reach the six that make a team eligible — at most one of which may come against an FCS opponent. In 1.4% of seasons they get there and still go nowhere: there are more eligible teams than seats.

  • LA Bowl17%
  • New Mexico Bowl16%
  • Arizona Bowl13%
  • Famous Idaho Potato Bowl9.2%
  • Frisco Bowl5.5%
  • Cure Bowl5.3%

Every bowl, and how each one picks →

Recruiting Pipelines

since 2010

Of the 170 high-school programs with a pipeline page here, 27 have sent Air Force a player since 2010 — 49 signees between them. Where they signed, not where they were offered, and not a complete list of Air Force's feeder schools: only these 170 have the outcome history to measure.

High schoolSignedDrafted
Cy-FairTX40
SaguaroAZ40
ChandlerAZ30
Corona CentennialCA30
Oaks ChristianCA30
Valor ChristianCO30
Archbishop MoellerOH20
BinghamUT20
All 170 high-school pipelines →
✓/✗ = whether our pregame model picked the winner. Win % & projections from the Gridpex model. Data: CollegeFootballData.