Air Force vs. New Mexico Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where New Mexico gets at Air Force: 14th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 137th at stuffing runs at the line. Air Force projects no clear way in against New Mexico. New Mexico is also 39th at keeping a clean pocket, against a unit 137th.
How
UNMattacks
AF
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
UNM#14 of 138AF#137 of 138 - 2
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UNM#39 of 138AF#137 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
UNM#50 of 138AF#137 of 138
The two teams
Air Force
Air Force runs it: Troy Calhoun's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 11 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 3rd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 138th at defending the pass, and they are 138th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (+1.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −27.7% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Air Force has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#3projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#16projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensethrowing it#138projected
- Defenserunning it#138projected
- Defensesurviving second and twelve#138projected
New Mexico
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#14projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#25projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UNM Elo 1558, AF Elo 1424 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UNM -6 (64% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
AF80th8thUNMUNM72nd4thAFThrough the air
AF138th6thUNMUNM111th4thAFOn the ground
AF2nd24thUNMUNM26th14thAFStaying on the field
AF14th10thUNMUNM53rd36thAFTaking care of it
AF1st1stUNMUNM31st53rdAF
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesAir Force leads 26–16 · New Mexico has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| AF | UNM | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.9 (#127) | CORE overall | +7.4 (#41) |
| -1 / +14 | offense / defense | -2 / -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Air Force vs. New Mexico?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 64% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Air Force vs. New Mexico?
The model projects New Mexico by 6.0.
What time is Air Force vs. New Mexico and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 28, 4:30 PM ET, at University Stadium (NM).
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →