Falcon StadiumThe CW NetworkConference game
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
AF 1386
UTEP 1135
Projected spread
AF -14.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
AF
86% to win
Market spread
—
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
86%
AF (no market)
Our model blends Elo + SP+ ratings (AF Elo 1386, UTEP Elo 1135) plus home-field advantage. That projects AF -14.8 (86% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Pregame Win Probability
Gridpex modelUTEP 14% · AF 86%
Pick: AF
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Season stats — 2025
UTEP2025 season · national rank shownAF
331.8113th
Total yards / game
406.746th5.1114th
Yards / play
6.0Key matchups · Pro
- UTEP pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. AF pass defense (0.51 allowed) — edge AF.
- AF pass offense (0.55 PPA) vs. UTEP pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge AF.
- UTEP rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. AF rush defense (0.31 allowed) — edge AF.
FAQ
Who will win UTEP vs. Air Force?
Gridpex's model favors Air Force with a 86% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for UTEP vs. Air Force?
The model projects Air Force by 14.8.
What time is UTEP vs. Air Force and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 AM on The CW Network, at Falcon Stadium.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I make this Air Force at 86% to win, projecting Air Force by 14.8.