#24Paul Perkins

RB·UCLA·2015 20144.6 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Paul Perkins is a 2-year Featured Back for UCLA. Paul's 2014 season ranks in the 53th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 260 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Paul Perkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1572 Rush yards9 Rush TD250 Carries6.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

26 Receptions201 Rec yards2 Rec TD7.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency53
Volume80
Explosiveness66
Consistency68
Receiving43

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)53th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Kansas State (SP+ 16).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0
Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	2014	262	0.380	5.3	99.6
Blake Corum	Michigan	2023	283	0.380	5.1	107.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Virginia	W28-20	4.0	16	80	5.0	0	1	10	0	0.03
2	vsMemphis	W42-35	5.6	23	98	4.3	2	3	1	0	0.03
3	vsTexas	W20-17	9.0	24	126	5.3	0	5	69	0	0.31
5	@Arizona State	W62-27	13.5	14	137	9.8	0	1	-1	0	—
6	vsUtah	L28-30	8.8	17	99	5.8	1	—	—	—	0.26
7	vsOregon	L30-42	24.7	21	187	8.9	0	3	13	0	0.29
8	@California	W36-34	-0.6	15	86	5.7	0	4	75	2	0.40
9	@Colorado	W40-37	-5.0	19	180	9.5	2	2	12	0	0.16
10	vsArizona	W17-7	7.6	21	78	3.7	1	1	0	0	-0.24
11	@Washington	W44-30	7.8	19	98	5.2	0	4	19	0	0.04
13	vsUSC	W38-20	17.1	24	93	3.9	1	—	—	—	0.13
14	vsStanford	L10-31	21.4	17	116	6.8	0	2	3	0	0.44
1	vsKansas State	W40-35	16.3	20	194	9.7	2	—	—	—	0.57

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.1%

Passing plays

6.7%

Rushing plays

48.9%

Standard downs

32.1%

Passing downs

18.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.16 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	UCLA	4.6	0.360	—	88.6
2015	UCLA	3.9	0.320	-0.04	80.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.