#7Michael Pratt

QB·Tulane·2022 20202.3 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Michael Pratt is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Tulane. Michael's 2020 season ranks in the 5th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 359 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Michael Pratt's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

Recruiting Profile· Class of 2020

★★★★★

3-Star · Developmental

Stars: ★★★★★
247 composite: 0.8452
National rank: #1,364
High school: Deerfield Beach
Hometown: Deerfield Beach, FL

Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.

2020 Production

Passing

139/253 Comp/Att1806 Pass yards20 Pass TD8 INT54.9% Comp %

Rushing

237 Rush yards8 Rush TD116 Carries2.0 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency5
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency68
Clutch55

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)5th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.11 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.53 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Southern Miss (SP+ -8).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
4	@Southern Miss	W66-24	-7.9	8/18	142	2	0	40	1	0.53
6	@Houston	L31-49	3.3	11/25	141	1	0	-9	1	-0.03
7	vsSMU	L34-37	9.2	12/29	192	1	1	26	2	0.20
8	@UCF	L34-51	13.6	14/24	215	3	1	-5	0	0.28
9	vsTemple	W38-3	-10.0	12/21	205	2	1	56	1	0.43
10	@East Carolina	W38-21	-11.0	22/34	216	3	1	31	0	0.46
11	vsArmy	W38-12	2.7	19/27	197	2	0	19	0	0.47
12	@Tulsa	L24-30	5.6	8/17	76	2	1	30	0	-0.18
14	vsMemphis	W35-21	5.7	21/33	254	2	0	24	2	0.23
1	vsNevada	L27-38	1.9	12/25	168	2	3	25	1	-0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

53.5%

Passing plays

98.3%

Rushing plays

21.0%

Standard downs

47.6%

Passing downs

66.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.19
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.17 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2022 · 23 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Tulane	2.3	0.351	—	140.1
2022	Tulane	6.8	0.466	+0.12	222.1

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.