#16Levi Williams

QB·Utah State·2023

Levi Williams is a Dual-Threat QB for Utah State. Levi's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 87 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Levi Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

35/61 Comp/Att425 Pass yards5 Pass TD2 INT57.4% Comp %

Rushing

209 Rush yards3 Rush TD45 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume89
Dual-Threat100
Consistency4
Clutch83

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency4th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.81 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Idaho State.

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	vsIdaho State	W78-28	—	5/7	68	2	0	73.3	30	0	0.81
3	@Air Force	L21-39	5.9	0/1	0	0	0	0.4	-1	0	-0.40
12	vsBoise State	L10-45	5.9	2/5	28	0	0	8.2	4	0	-0.19
13	@New Mexico	W44-41	-16.5	16/27	198	2	1	80.9	153	3	0.38
20	vsGeorgia State	L22-45	-6.8	12/21	131	1	1	21.3	23	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

31.3%

Passing plays

39.8%

Rushing plays

22.3%

Standard downs

26.6%

Passing downs

40.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.08 / 0.60

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).