#1Kiael Kelly

QB·Ball State·2025

Kiael Kelly is a Dual-Threat QB for Ball State. Kiael's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 438 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kiael Kelly's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

153/272 Comp/Att1560 Pass yards10 Pass TD8 INT56.3% Comp %

Rushing

608 Rush yards5 Rush TD211 Carries2.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat62
Consistency0
Clutch70

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.10 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.52 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs New Hampshire.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Purdue	L0-31	-6.1	10/16	87	0	0	17.3	63	0	0.03
2	@Auburn	L3-42	11.6	10/16	71	0	0	9.6	-21	0	-0.08
3	vsNew Hampshire	W34-29	—	9/15	105	2	1	77.4	101	1	0.52
4	@UConn	L25-31	5.1	17/24	209	1	1	38.6	27	0	0.27
6	vsOhio	W20-14	-4.0	17/33	185	1	0	57.4	96	1	0.05
7	@Western Michigan	L0-42	-1.4	13/22	68	0	0	22.6	7	0	-0.22
8	vsAkron	W42-28	-13.9	10/19	121	1	1	47.0	58	3	0.21
9	@Northern Illinois	L7-21	-16.7	10/23	136	1	2	34.6	86	0	0.05
11	vsKent State	W17-13	-19.3	17/29	173	2	0	14.2	53	0	0.09
12	vsEastern Michigan	L9-24	-14.7	13/22	62	0	1	9.4	67	0	-0.14
13	@Toledo	L9-38	6.0	13/30	166	0	2	7.0	10	0	-0.28
14	@Miami (OH)	L24-45	-3.4	14/23	177	2	0	39.7	61	0	0.04

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

64.9%

Passing plays

99.1%

Rushing plays

40.0%

Standard downs

57.5%

Passing downs

78.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.03
Passing downs: 0.12
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.04 / 0.21

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).