#10Keith Wenning

QB·Ball State·20133.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Keith Wenning is a Dual-Threat QB for Ball State. Keith's 2013 season ranks in the 68th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 473 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keith Wenning's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

319/498 Comp/Att4148 Pass yards35 Pass TD7 INT64.1% Comp %

Rushing

44 Rush yards5 Rush TD45 Carries1.0 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts33 Punt yards33.0 Yards/punt33 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency68
Volume100
Dual-Threat69
Consistency87
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)68th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency87th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.54 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Eastern Michigan (SP+ -36).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsIllinois State	W51-28	—	24/40	340	3	0	78.8	-16	2	0.41
2	vsArmy	W40-14	-24.6	23/32	325	2	0	91.1	8	0	0.50
3	@North Texas	L27-34	1.0	27/46	333	2	2	64.2	7	0	0.23
4	@Eastern Michigan	W51-20	-35.7	17/28	317	2	0	92.2	7	0	0.54
5	vsToledo	W31-24	4.7	27/38	335	0	1	72.9	-6	1	0.47
6	@Virginia	W48-27	-5.2	23/41	346	2	0	73.9	-3	1	0.17
7	vsKent State	W27-24	-13.8	23/46	305	4	2	56.7	20	0	0.01
8	@Western Michigan	W38-17	-25.5	25/37	324	3	0	87.9	27	0	0.47
9	@Akron	W42-24	-15.3	25/35	240	5	0	75.6	-6	0	0.40
11	vsCentral Michigan	W44-24	-18.8	20/29	299	4	0	90.7	-2	0	0.47
12	@Northern Illinois	L27-48	6.3	35/49	324	1	1	78.7	9	1	0.32
14	vsMiami (OH)	W55-14	-29.0	27/33	445	6	0	97.1	—	—	0.33
1	vsArkansas State	L20-23	-16.2	23/44	215	1	1	43.2	-1	0	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.3%

Passing plays

97.3%

Rushing plays

6.7%

Standard downs

51.8%

Passing downs

60.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.33 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.