#15Kawaan Baker

WR·South Alabama·20181.4 pts line value1st Round

Kawaan Baker is a Versatile WR for South Alabama. Kawaan's 2018 season ranks in the 83th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 90 plays — a above-average rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Kawaan Baker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Rushing

258 Rush yards9 Rush TD60 Carries4.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

33 Receptions494 Rec yards4 Rec TD15.0 Yards/rec

Returns

5 Kick returns94 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs WR peers

Efficiency83
Volume39
Explosiveness53
Consistency78
Pass-Down0

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)83th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the WR position (83th percentile).
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 1.12 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Louisiana Tech (SP+ -7).

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Isaiah Williams	Illinois	2020	59	0.380	1.2	22.4
Lorenzo Lee Nunez	South Carolina	2015	56	0.430	1.4	24.1
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsLouisiana Tech	L26-30	-6.9	2	12	6.0	1	9	1.12
2	@Oklahoma State	L13-55	13.8	4	29	7.3	1	24	0.55
3	vsTexas State	W41-31	-16.4	2	7	3.5	0	4	-0.33
4	@Memphis	L35-52	9.2	4	49	12.3	1	21	0.85
5	@App State	L7-52	11.9	4	89	22.3	0	41	0.52
6	@Georgia Southern	L13-48	-2.4	3	79	26.3	0	30	0.53
7	vsAlabama State	W45-7	—	2	52	26.0	0	51	—
9	vsTroy	L17-38	2.6	2	20	10.0	0	11	0.24
10	@Arkansas State	L14-38	1.2	3	40	13.3	0	26	0.38
11	vsUL Monroe	L10-38	-10.9	3	37	12.3	0	19	0.56
12	@Louisiana	L38-48	-6.9	4	80	20.0	1	50	0.96
13	vsCoastal Carolina	W31-28	-17.2	—	—	—	—	—	0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.5%

Passing plays

14.5%

Rushing plays

13.0%

Standard downs

12.9%

Passing downs

14.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.73
Passing downs: 0.20
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.67 / 0.42

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.