#4Katin Houser

QB·East Carolina·20255.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Katin Houser is a Dual-Threat QB for East Carolina. Katin's 2025 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 444 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Katin Houser's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

269/408 Comp/Att3300 Pass yards19 Pass TD6 INT65.9% Comp %

Rushing

193 Rush yards9 Rush TD85 Carries2.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat78
Consistency81
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.08 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.67 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Florida Atlantic (SP+ -9).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@NC State	L17-24	4.8	30/44	366	1	0	55.8	16	0	0.31
2	vsCampbell	W56-3	—	25/35	314	2	0	85.9	14	0	0.49
3	@Coastal Carolina	W38-0	-15.1	28/37	293	2	1	82.9	12	0	0.48
4	vsBYU	L13-34	15.9	25/42	285	0	2	38.9	11	1	-0.12
5	vsArmy	W28-6	0.8	15/22	251	2	1	50.6	-2	1	0.52
7	@Tulane	L19-26	6.3	19/30	180	1	0	62.3	12	1	0.23
8	vsTulsa	W41-27	-10.0	21/38	300	2	0	52.0	22	1	0.41
10	@Temple	W45-14	-5.1	19/24	256	2	1	85.6	0	0	0.53
11	vsCharlotte	W48-22	-26.7	26/41	224	2	0	42.7	26	2	0.16
12	vsMemphis	W31-27	7.6	23/34	332	1	0	75.1	-1	1	0.55
13	@UTSA	L24-58	3.7	18/32	241	2	1	14.3	16	0	0.07
14	@Florida Atlantic	W42-3	-8.7	20/29	258	2	0	92.9	67	2	0.67

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.7%

Passing plays

96.1%

Rushing plays

14.7%

Standard downs

46.6%

Passing downs

66.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.69
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.38 / 0.29

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2025 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.