#9Justin Ruffin Jr.

WR·Central Michigan·2025

Justin Ruffin Jr. is a Slot Specialist WR for Central Michigan.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Justin Ruffin Jr.'s projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

7 Receptions63 Rec yards0 Rec TD9.0 Yards/rec

Returns

3 Kick returns68 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume10
Explosiveness13
Consistency77
Pass-Down0

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency77th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Peak game: 1.24 EPA/play in Wk 6 vs Akron (SP+ -14).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2020	39	0.320	0.4	12.5
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0
Cade Harris	Air Force	2024	45	0.330	0.5	14.8
Ainias Smith	Texas A&M	2020	55	0.310	0.5	17.0
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	@Pittsburgh	L17-45	8.4	4	19	4.8	0	7	0.08
3	@Michigan	L3-63	12.4	2	23	11.5	0	18	1.04
6	@Akron	L22-28	-13.9	1	21	21.0	0	21	1.24
8	@Bowling Green	W27-6	-12.6	—	—	—	—	—	0.25
9	vsMassachusetts	W38-13	-36.6	—	—	—	—	—	—
20	vsNorthwestern	L7-34	5.8	—	—	—	—	—	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

3.6%

Passing plays

9.3%

Rushing plays

0.5%

Standard downs

2.6%

Passing downs

5.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: -0.00
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / 0.25

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).