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Joshua Cephus
Joshua Cephus

#2Joshua Cephus

WR·UTSA·2023

Joshua Cephus is a Versatile WR for UTSA. Joshua's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 97 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.47
    Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.45
    Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Joshua Cephus's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving
89 Receptions1151 Rec yards10 Rec TD12.9 Yards/rec
Returns
1 Punt returns16 PR yards0 PR TD

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

  • Efficiency100
  • Volume30
  • Explosiveness40
  • Consistency81
  • Pass-Down100
Player type
Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite
Game-to-game consistency81th %ile · above avg
Key findings
  • ▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
  • ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
  • ▸11 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
  • ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.68 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 3.28 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs East Carolina (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗
Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+3.280−3.28Wk 1 vs Houston: +1.39 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Texas State: +0.52 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Army: +0.90 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Tennessee: +0.39 EPA/play4Wk 6 vs Temple: +1.22 EPA/play6Wk 7 vs UAB: +1.19 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Florida Atlantic: +0.41 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs East Carolina: +3.28 EPA/play9Wk 10 vs North Texas: +1.09 EPA/play10Wk 11 vs Rice: +1.49 EPA/play11Wk 12 vs South Florida: +1.43 EPA/play12Wk 13 vs Tulane: +0.80 EPA/play13
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+RecRec YdsAvgRec TDLongEPA/play
1@HoustonL14-17-7.8912313.71281.39
2vsTexas StateW20-13-1.67405.70120.52
3vsArmyL29-37-4.088410.51440.90
4@TennesseeL14-4516.27588.31210.39
6@TempleW49-34-21.078111.61171.22
7vsUABW41-20-14.77557.92111.19
8@Florida AtlanticW36-10-9.47578.10120.41
9vsEast CarolinaW41-27-12.8418345.81843.28
10@North TexasW37-29-6.766911.50281.09
11vsRiceW34-14-10.255310.61141.49
12vsSouth FloridaW49-21-6.6916318.11641.43
13@TulaneL16-292.868313.80240.80
20vsMarshallW35-17-9.0710214.6144—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
10.6%
Passing plays
22.1%
Rushing plays
0.0%
Standard downs
9.6%
Passing downs
12.6%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.75
Passing downs
1.51
Pass / Rush EPA
1.04 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.