#24James Conner

RB·Pittsburgh·20144.8 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

James Conner is a Featured Back for Pittsburgh. James's 2014 season ranks in the 45th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 258 plays — a average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So James Conner's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1765 Rush yards26 Rush TD298 Carries5.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

5 Receptions70 Rec yards0 Rec TD14.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency45
Volume94
Explosiveness58
Consistency63
Receiving13

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)45th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.29 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.22 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Georgia Tech (SP+ 11).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Ameer Abdullah	Nebraska	2014	262	0.380	5.3	99.6
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Blake Corum	Michigan	2023	283	0.380	5.1	107.5

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsDelaware	W62-0	—	14	153	10.9	4	1	11	0	0.21
2	@Boston College	W30-20	4.9	36	214	5.9	1	—	—	—	0.22
3	@Florida International	W42-25	-16.2	31	177	5.7	3	—	—	—	—
4	vsIowa	L20-24	6.8	29	155	5.3	1	1	9	0	0.32
5	vsAkron	L10-21	-9.4	25	92	3.7	0	—	—	—	-0.11
6	@Virginia	L19-24	4.0	21	83	4.0	0	—	—	—	-0.09
8	vsVirginia Tech	W21-16	7.8	16	85	5.3	2	2	10	0	0.28
9	vsGeorgia Tech	L28-56	11.2	10	120	12.0	3	—	—	—	1.22
10	vsDuke	L48-51	7.0	38	263	6.9	3	—	—	—	0.28
12	@North Carolina	L35-40	0.0	30	220	7.3	4	—	—	—	0.43
13	vsSyracuse	W30-7	-2.1	11	38	3.5	1	—	—	—	-0.01
14	@Miami	W35-23	13.9	16	75	4.7	2	1	40	0	0.28
1	vsHouston	L34-35	5.4	21	90	4.3	2	—	—	—	0.21

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

32.9%

Passing plays

2.4%

Rushing plays

52.4%

Standard downs

41.0%

Passing downs

9.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.26
Passing downs: 0.03
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.20 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.