#15Jake Waters

QB·Kansas State·201410.9 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Jake Waters is a Dual-Threat QB for Kansas State. Jake's 2014 season ranks in the 55th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 531 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Jake Waters's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Passing

262/397 Comp/Att3501 Pass yards22 Pass TD7 INT66.0% Comp %

Rushing

484 Rush yards9 Rush TD154 Carries3.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs QB peers

Efficiency55
Volume100
Dual-Threat81
Consistency83
Clutch94

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)55th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Kansas (SP+ -10).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4
Trace McSorley	Penn State	2017	626	0.513	12.7	321.0
Ryan Higgins	Louisiana Tech	2016	571	0.586	13.7	334.6
Sam Hartman	Wake Forest	2021	647	0.556	11.8	359.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsStephen F. Austin	W55-16	—	19/28	223	2	1	91.1	55	2	0.46
2	@Iowa State	W32-28	-7.9	16/29	239	0	0	79.6	138	2	0.37
4	vsAuburn	L14-20	24.2	24/40	245	0	2	29.6	-7	0	0.00
5	vsUTEP	W58-28	-12.0	10/15	209	1	0	85.3	29	1	0.88
6	vsTexas Tech	W45-13	4.9	24/31	290	4	0	90.5	105	1	0.54
8	@Oklahoma	W31-30	19.2	15/23	225	2	0	82.8	51	1	0.46
9	vsTexas	W23-0	9.0	19/30	224	0	0	68.0	-1	0	0.38
10	vsOklahoma State	W48-14	8.6	19/28	223	2	0	77.5	34	0	0.30
11	@TCU	L20-41	23.3	20/37	291	2	1	49.9	2	0	0.15
13	@West Virginia	W26-20	8.4	22/34	400	1	1	59.0	13	0	0.56
14	vsKansas	W51-13	-9.8	21/27	294	4	0	96.9	21	1	0.89
15	@Baylor	L27-38	23.9	22/27	300	2	1	60.1	31	0	0.36
1	vsUCLA	L35-40	17.7	31/48	338	2	1	49.4	13	1	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

60.3%

Passing plays

95.9%

Rushing plays

27.8%

Standard downs

52.9%

Passing downs

77.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.29
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.