#2J.K. Dobbins
J.K. Dobbins is a 2-year Featured Back for Ohio State. J.K.'s 2019 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 314 plays — a elite rate for the RB. A four-star recruit in the class of 2017, J.K. has lived up to his recruiting pedigree.
What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025
How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.
- Usage share (volume)0.52Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
- EPA per play (efficiency)0.10Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
- Total EPA (value)0.41Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons
Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So J.K. Dobbins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.
Recruiting Profile· Class of 2017
- Stars
- ★★★★★
- 247 composite
- 0.9790
- National rank
- #46
- High school
- La Grange
- Hometown
- La Grange, TX
Recruiting data from CFBD/247Sports composite. Sourced from the player's signing-class team — transfers show original school's class.
2019 Production
Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs RB peers
- Efficiency98
- Volume87
- Explosiveness74
- Consistency85
- Receiving40
The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.
- ▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
- ▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
- ▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
- ▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
- ▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
- ▸Peak game: 0.72 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Maryland (SP+ -6).
Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value
Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week
Usage & Situational · Pro
- Standard downs
- 0.29
- Passing downs
- 0.71
- Pass / Rush EPA
- 0.71 / 0.33
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Career · rolling EPA, game by game
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.