#5Devin Singletary

RB·Florida Atlantic·2018 20178.4 pts line value1st Round

Devin Singletary is a 2-year Featured Back for Florida Atlantic. Devin's 2017 season ranks in the 95th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 311 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Devin Singletary's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2017 Production

Rushing

1920 Rush yards32 Rush TD301 Carries6.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

19 Receptions198 Rec yards1 Rec TD10.4 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2017 · vs RB peers

Efficiency95
Volume88
Explosiveness68
Consistency79
Receiving38

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)95th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency79th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.12 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.02 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs North Texas (SP+ -5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
J.K. Dobbins	Ohio State	2019	318	0.510	8.4	162.2
Ezekiel Elliott	Ohio State	2015	311	0.480	8.6	149.3
Ezekiel Elliott	Ohio State	2014	292	0.520	7.8	151.8
Rashaad Penny	San Diego State	2017	294	0.470	7.7	138.2
Chuba Hubbard	Oklahoma State	2019	343	0.450	8.2	154.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsNavy	L19-42	-0.7	6	26	4.3	0	3	28	0	0.12
2	@Wisconsin	L14-31	26.8	17	68	4.0	1	1	-2	0	-0.04
3	vsBethune-Cookman	W45-0	—	11	109	9.9	1	3	22	0	0.59
4	@Buffalo	L31-34	-11.2	22	156	7.1	3	2	7	0	0.43
5	vsMiddle Tennessee	W38-20	-4.9	24	133	5.5	4	1	0	0	0.36
6	@Old Dominion	W58-28	-16.8	26	194	7.5	2	—	—	—	0.62
8	vsNorth Texas	W69-31	-4.5	17	123	7.2	3	1	45	0	1.02
9	@Western Kentucky	W42-28	-4.9	36	244	6.8	4	2	11	0	0.37
10	vsMarshall	W30-25	-4.5	28	203	7.3	1	2	72	1	0.53
11	@Louisiana Tech	W48-23	-5.5	18	104	5.8	3	1	-9	0	0.16
12	vsFlorida International	W52-24	-10.4	25	164	6.6	2	1	13	0	0.21
13	@Charlotte	W31-12	-26.1	19	108	5.7	2	—	—	—	0.08
14	vsNorth Texas	W41-17	-4.5	26	164	6.3	3	1	-2	0	0.59
1	vsAkron	W50-3	-17.6	26	124	4.8	3	1	13	0	0.31

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

30.7%

Passing plays

6.4%

Rushing plays

45.2%

Standard downs

33.8%

Passing downs

23.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.33
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.38

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2017 — 2018 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2017	Florida Atlantic	8.4	0.500	—	159.5
2018	Florida Atlantic	3.5	0.320	-0.18	74.9

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.