#2Grayson McCall

QB·Coastal Carolina·2022 202010.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Grayson McCall is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Coastal Carolina. Grayson's 2020 season ranks in the 85th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 350 plays — a above-average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Grayson McCall's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2020 Production

Passing

172/249 Comp/Att2488 Pass yards26 Pass TD3 INT69.1% Comp %

Rushing

569 Rush yards7 Rush TD111 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2020 · vs QB peers

Efficiency85
Volume100
Dual-Threat69
Consistency86
Clutch96

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)85th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the QB position (85th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.22 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.06 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Campbell.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Tanner Mordecai	SMU	2021	510	0.630	14.0	321.5
Kaidon Salter	Liberty	2023	486	0.711	14.7	345.6
Malik Cunningham	Louisville	2021	502	0.681	14.7	341.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
2	@Kansas	W38-23	-16.3	11/18	133	3	0	73	2	0.44
3	vsCampbell	W43-21	—	11/16	273	2	0	22	0	1.06
5	vsArkansas State	W52-23	-6.5	20/29	322	4	1	44	0	0.55
7	@Louisiana	W30-27	8.1	17/24	202	2	0	45	1	0.45
9	@Georgia State	W51-0	-5.7	18/24	254	4	0	15	1	0.86
10	vsSouth Alabama	W23-6	-11.3	17/24	209	1	0	72	0	0.36
12	vsApp State	W34-23	10.3	12/21	200	2	0	69	1	0.32
13	@Texas State	W49-14	-13.4	11/18	154	2	0	25	0	0.54
14	vsBYU	W22-17	19.2	10/15	85	0	0	68	0	0.12
15	@Troy	W42-38	2.3	24/29	338	3	1	40	1	0.74
1	vsLiberty	L34-37	6.5	21/31	318	3	1	96	1	0.54

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

49.0%

Passing plays

96.6%

Rushing plays

21.9%

Standard downs

42.1%

Passing downs

73.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.44
Passing downs: 0.72
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.65 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2020 — 2022 · 22 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2020	Coastal Carolina	10.3	0.615	—	229.5
2022	Coastal Carolina	8.5	0.562	-0.05	210.6

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.