#80Grayson Barnes

TE·Northern Illinois·2024

Grayson Barnes is a Slot Specialist TE for Northern Illinois. Grayson's 2024 season produced 24.8 total EPA across 39 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Grayson Barnes's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

31 Receptions338 Rec yards4 Rec TD10.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume13
Explosiveness26
Consistency63
Pass-Down100

Player type

Slot Specialist TE

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency63th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸7 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 2.50 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Western Illinois.

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4
Johnny Langan	Rutgers	2020	59	0.300	0.0	17.7
Evan Svoboda	Wyoming	2024	75	0.290	0.5	21.8
Jordan Myers	Rice	2021	59	0.270	0.2	15.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsWestern Illinois	W54-15	—	5	95	19.0	1	60	2.50
2	@Notre Dame	W16-14	23.9	1	13	13.0	0	13	1.95
4	vsBuffalo	L20-23	-4.0	4	30	7.5	0	14	0.84
5	@NC State	L17-24	3.9	1	3	3.0	0	3	-0.17
6	vsMassachusetts	W34-20	-21.9	2	6	3.0	0	5	-0.87
7	@Bowling Green	W17-7	-1.8	2	13	6.5	0	12	0.21
8	vsToledo	L6-13	-2.5	1	4	4.0	0	4	0.47
9	@Ball State	L23-25	-19.8	4	27	6.8	0	11	0.27
11	@Western Michigan	W42-28	-10.2	1	31	31.0	0	31	0.77
12	vsAkron	W29-16	-17.9	1	32	32.0	1	32	0.77
13	@Miami (OH)	L9-20	1.3	2	22	11.0	0	12	0.40
14	vsCentral Michigan	W24-16	-15.8	1	5	5.0	0	5	1.13
20	vsFresno State	W28-20	-3.8	6	57	9.5	2	26	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.4%

Passing plays

10.0%

Rushing plays

0.6%

Standard downs

3.5%

Passing downs

6.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.45
Passing downs: 0.85
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.59 / 1.19

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).