#21Gavin Williams

RB·Northern Illinois·2024

Gavin Williams is a Pass-Catching Back for Northern Illinois. Gavin's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 156 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Gavin Williams's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

749 Rush yards4 Rush TD139 Carries5.4 Yards/carry

Receiving

25 Receptions140 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.6 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns14 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume50
Explosiveness48
Consistency7
Receiving70

Player type

Pass-Catching Back

Third-down weapon out of the backfield. Routes, hands, and separation in coverage define this role as much as rushing.

3rd-down backReceiving threatPass protection

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency7th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.22 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.80 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Central Michigan (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsWestern Illinois	W54-15	—	9	41	4.6	0	2	8	0	-0.24
2	@Notre Dame	W16-14	23.9	17	59	3.5	0	—	—	—	-0.17
4	vsBuffalo	L20-23	-4.0	10	63	6.3	0	2	2	0	0.12
5	@NC State	L17-24	3.9	5	19	3.8	0	2	15	0	0.23
6	vsMassachusetts	W34-20	-21.9	19	125	6.6	1	—	—	—	0.30
7	@Bowling Green	W17-7	-1.8	29	102	3.5	0	2	1	0	-0.04
8	vsToledo	L6-13	-2.5	16	78	4.9	0	2	17	0	0.32
9	@Ball State	L23-25	-19.8	1	1	1.0	0	—	—	—	-0.86
11	@Western Michigan	W42-28	-10.2	8	42	5.3	1	3	22	1	0.72
12	vsAkron	W29-16	-17.9	9	101	11.2	1	2	35	0	0.74
13	@Miami (OH)	L9-20	1.3	6	45	7.5	0	4	12	0	-0.13
14	vsCentral Michigan	W24-16	-15.8	6	65	10.8	1	3	26	0	0.80
20	vsFresno State	W28-20	-3.8	4	8	2.0	0	3	2	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.6%

Passing plays

6.8%

Rushing plays

25.2%

Standard downs

19.0%

Passing downs

14.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.15
Passing downs: 0.22
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.25 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).