#4Ethan Garbers

QB·UCLA·20245.9 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Ethan Garbers is a Dual-Threat QB for UCLA. Ethan's 2024 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 446 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ethan Garbers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Passing

235/363 Comp/Att2727 Pass yards16 Pass TD11 INT64.7% Comp %

Rushing

137 Rush yards1 Rush TD83 Carries1.7 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts41 Punt yards41.0 Yards/punt41 Long1 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat99
Consistency76
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency76th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.23 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.72 EPA/play in Wk 8 vs Rutgers (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	@Hawai'i	W16-13	-10.9	19/38	272	1	2	39.6	47	0	0.18
3	vsIndiana	L13-42	20.1	14/23	137	0	1	45.5	21	0	0.07
4	@LSU	L17-34	15.9	22/36	281	2	1	47.4	-51	0	0.22
5	vsOregon	L13-34	26.0	12/20	118	0	2	24.7	-18	0	-0.13
7	vsMinnesota	L17-21	10.4	25/36	293	1	3	70.8	0	0	0.23
8	@Rutgers	W35-32	6.4	32/38	383	4	0	96.6	48	1	0.72
10	@Nebraska	W27-20	5.5	17/25	219	2	0	94.4	56	0	0.61
11	vsIowa	W20-17	15.8	21/34	203	2	2	67.6	23	0	0.32
12	@Washington	L19-31	3.1	27/44	267	2	0	76.0	2	0	0.33
13	vsUSC	L13-19	11.9	20/29	265	1	0	47.1	7	0	0.31
14	vsFresno State	W20-13	-3.8	26/40	289	1	0	67.2	2	0	0.17

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

66.0%

Passing plays

98.7%

Rushing plays

19.4%

Standard downs

57.8%

Passing downs

80.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.08
Passing downs: 0.56
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.28 / 0.40

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2024 · 11 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.