#9Drake Dabney

TE·Baylor·2023

Drake Dabney is a Slot Specialist TE for Baylor. Drake's 2023 season produced 39.8 total EPA across 42 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Drake Dabney's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

33 Receptions552 Rec yards5 Rec TD16.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume15
Explosiveness65
Consistency74
Pass-Down0

Player type

Slot Specialist TE

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.28 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.87 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Kansas State (SP+ 16).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsTexas State	L31-42	-1.6	6	101	16.8	2	53	1.72
2	vsUtah	L13-20	8.5	1	35	35.0	0	35	0.39
3	vsLong Island University	W30-7	—	1	3	3.0	1	3	1.00
4	vsTexas	L6-38	23.2	2	8	4.0	0	6	-0.93
5	@UCF	W36-35	3.4	2	25	12.5	0	15	1.46
6	vsTexas Tech	L14-39	6.1	3	30	10.0	0	14	0.87
8	@Cincinnati	W32-29	-6.8	2	48	24.0	0	41	1.50
9	vsIowa State	L18-30	7.5	2	21	10.5	0	16	0.23
10	vsHouston	L24-25	-7.8	4	76	19.0	1	38	0.10
11	@Kansas State	L25-59	16.2	4	105	26.3	1	63	1.87
12	@TCU	L17-42	7.9	4	77	19.3	0	48	1.31
13	vsWest Virginia	L31-34	7.5	2	23	11.5	0	14	1.18

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.2%

Passing plays

9.5%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

4.1%

Passing downs

7.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 1.20
Passing downs: 0.64
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.95 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).