#3Donavon Greene

WR·Virginia Tech·2025

Donavon Greene is a Slot Specialist WR for Virginia Tech.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Donavon Greene's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

16 Receptions267 Rec yards2 Rec TD16.7 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume15
Explosiveness65
Consistency67
Pass-Down67

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.86 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.98 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs South Carolina (SP+ 6).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Dane Kinamon	Air Force	2021	39	0.410	0.7	16.0
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Keytaon Thompson	Virginia	2021	41	0.370	0.6	15.2
Micah Davis	Air Force	2021	44	0.370	0.6	16.3
JoJo Natson	Utah State	2014	51	0.390	1.0	19.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsSouth Carolina	L11-24	5.9	3	94	31.3	0	37	1.98
2	vsVanderbilt	L20-44	20.3	1	22	22.0	0	22	0.10
3	vsOld Dominion	L26-45	5.9	5	77	15.4	2	23	1.30
4	vsWofford	W38-6	—	1	10	10.0	0	9	0.37
5	@NC State	W23-21	4.8	2	12	6.0	0	7	-0.27
6	vsWake Forest	L23-30	5.7	4	52	13.0	0	24	0.69

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

5.1%

Passing plays

11.2%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

4.0%

Passing downs

7.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.41
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.46 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).