#7Dillon Johnson

RB·Washington·20234.0 pts line value1st Round

Dillon Johnson is a Featured Back for Washington. Dillon's 2023 season ranks in the 75th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 246 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dillon Johnson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Rushing

1195 Rush yards16 Rush TD233 Carries5.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

24 Receptions190 Rec yards0 Rec TD7.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs RB peers

Efficiency75
Volume80
Explosiveness42
Consistency67
Receiving32

Player type

Featured Back

The centerpiece of the run game — high carry volume, used in early downs and goal-line, true workhorse role.

Primary ball carrierHigh volumeGoal-line threat

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)75th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency67th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (75th percentile).
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used RBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.76 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs USC (SP+ 9).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Hassan Haskins	Michigan	2021	280	0.380	4.8	106.4
Royce Freeman	Oregon	2015	275	0.360	5.1	99.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	vsBoise State	W56-19	5.9	7	12	1.7	1	3	20	0	-0.02
3	@Michigan State	W41-7	-6.8	8	71	8.9	0	—	—	—	0.35
4	vsCalifornia	W59-32	-0.1	10	66	6.6	1	1	9	0	0.67
5	@Arizona	W31-24	14.1	16	91	5.7	2	5	48	0	0.41
7	vsOregon	W36-33	26.2	20	100	5.0	1	2	10	0	0.22
8	vsArizona State	W15-7	-11.3	8	6	0.8	0	2	9	0	-0.15
9	@Stanford	W42-33	-11.9	18	84	4.7	1	—	—	—	0.10
10	@USC	W52-42	9.4	26	256	9.8	4	2	11	0	0.76
11	vsUtah	W35-28	8.5	23	104	4.5	1	2	28	0	0.25
12	@Oregon State	W22-20	12.6	16	89	5.6	0	—	—	—	-0.23
13	vsWashington State	W24-21	4.9	21	82	3.9	1	1	6	0	0.40
14	vsOregon	W34-31	26.2	28	152	5.4	2	1	7	0	0.34
20	vsMichigan	L13-34	31.3	11	33	3.0	0	2	24	0	—
20	vsTexas	W37-31	23.2	21	49	2.3	2	3	18	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

28.1%

Passing plays

4.9%

Rushing plays

61.2%

Standard downs

32.9%

Passing downs

15.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.66
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.47 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 14 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.