#1Dequan Finn

QB·Toledo·2023 20226.7 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Dequan Finn is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Toledo. Dequan's 2022 season ranks in the 43th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 415 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Dequan Finn's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2022 Production

Passing

189/316 Comp/Att2265 Pass yards23 Pass TD12 INT59.8% Comp %

Rushing

632 Rush yards9 Rush TD130 Carries4.9 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2022 · vs QB peers

Efficiency43
Volume100
Dual-Threat100
Consistency78
Clutch60

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)43th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸8 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.26 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.86 EPA/play in Wk 7 vs Kent State (SP+ -13).

NIL Market Tier· 2022

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsLong Island University	W37-0	—	21/28	216	2	1	50.9	64	1	0.51
2	vsMassachusetts	W55-10	-30.3	12/26	177	1	0	97.5	74	2	0.46
3	@Ohio State	L21-77	31.1	10/19	153	2	1	97.9	70	1	0.61
4	@San Diego State	L14-17	-4.4	21/34	240	1	3	64.6	44	1	0.42
5	vsCentral Michigan	W38-17	-14.0	13/23	186	2	0	51.8	84	0	0.57
6	@Northern Illinois	W52-32	-18.8	13/19	167	3	0	78.0	32	0	0.59
7	vsKent State	W52-31	-13.1	16/22	263	6	0	87.9	87	1	0.86
8	@Buffalo	L27-34	-9.2	25/47	240	1	4	29.2	66	2	0.08
11	vsBall State	W28-21	-14.9	21/38	301	3	1	53.0	10	0	0.45
13	@Western Michigan	L14-20	-17.3	5/11	35	0	2	0.4	-8	0	-0.31
14	vsOhio	W17-7	-4.6	16/25	154	1	0	—	86	0	0.25
1	vsLiberty	W21-19	-1.5	16/24	133	1	0	—	23	1	0.28

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

50.3%

Passing plays

85.3%

Rushing plays

23.2%

Standard downs

42.3%

Passing downs

68.2%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.48
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.40 / 0.58

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2022 — 2023 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2022	Toledo	6.7	0.488	—	205.8
2023	Toledo	7.9	0.549	+0.06	234.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.