#11David Blough

QB·Purdue·2018 20167.4 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

David Blough is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Purdue. David's 2018 season ranks in the 25th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 491 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So David Blough's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2018 Production

Passing

305/462 Comp/Att3705 Pass yards25 Pass TD10 INT66.0% Comp %

Rushing

51 Rush yards3 Rush TD76 Carries0.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2018 · vs QB peers

Efficiency25
Volume100
Dual-Threat63
Consistency68
Clutch95

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)25th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency68th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.09 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.60 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Iowa (SP+ 13).

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Stetson Bennett	Georgia	2022	509	0.635	12.5	323.0
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3
Kyle McCord	Syracuse	2024	632	0.509	12.1	321.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNorthwestern	L27-31	1.9	12/16	74	0	0	19	0	0.13
2	vsEastern Michigan	L19-20	-2.0	6/10	48	0	0	17	0	-0.23
3	vsMissouri	L37-40	20.8	39/55	572	3	1	18	1	0.54
4	vsBoston College	W30-13	2.4	21/28	296	3	0	-28	0	0.25
5	@Nebraska	W42-28	5.4	25/42	328	1	0	38	1	0.38
7	@Illinois	W46-7	-7.9	25/36	377	3	1	-15	0	0.56
8	vsOhio State	W49-20	24.1	25/43	378	3	0	-7	0	0.51
9	@Michigan State	L13-23	11.5	29/49	277	0	3	12	0	0.10
10	vsIowa	W38-36	13.3	23/32	333	4	2	28	0	0.60
11	@Minnesota	L10-41	6.3	20/31	142	1	0	-14	0	-0.07
12	vsWisconsin	L44-47	15.5	31/48	386	4	0	-18	0	0.07
13	@Indiana	W28-21	1.6	27/35	310	3	1	-18	0	0.35
1	vsAuburn	L14-63	23.6	22/37	184	0	2	19	1	0.01

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.9%

Passing plays

91.0%

Rushing plays

13.7%

Standard downs

49.0%

Passing downs

76.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.45
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.29 / 0.22

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2016 — 2018 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2016	Purdue	4.8	0.349	—	202.1
2018	Purdue	7.4	0.437	+0.09	245.2

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.