#3Darren Grainger

QB·Georgia State·20234.8 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Darren Grainger is a Dual-Threat QB for Georgia State. Darren's 2023 season ranks in the 8th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 477 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Darren Grainger's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

244/358 Comp/Att2625 Pass yards20 Pass TD7 INT68.2% Comp %

Rushing

736 Rush yards10 Rush TD159 Carries4.6 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency8
Volume100
Dual-Threat73
Consistency73
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)8th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.95 EPA/play in Wk 3 vs Charlotte (SP+ -21).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsRhode Island	W42-35	—	16/20	193	2	0	40.4	51	0	0.39
2	vsUConn	W35-14	-15.6	15/26	144	1	0	74.2	142	1	0.45
3	@Charlotte	W41-25	-21.4	27/33	466	3	0	93.7	23	1	0.95
4	@Coastal Carolina	W30-17	-1.2	15/26	191	1	0	67.3	47	1	0.29
5	vsTroy	L7-28	9.8	19/29	193	0	2	7.4	25	0	-0.08
7	vsMarshall	W41-24	-9.0	21/31	234	1	0	65.1	62	2	0.28
8	@Louisiana	W20-17	0.4	17/22	211	2	0	68.5	18	0	0.52
9	@Georgia Southern	L27-44	-5.2	21/37	157	2	2	32.5	80	0	0.10
10	vsJames Madison	L14-42	11.8	10/19	82	0	0	90.4	103	2	0.30
11	vsApp State	L14-42	3.8	15/28	115	2	1	2.1	18	0	0.02
12	@LSU	L14-56	19.1	23/29	179	1	0	82.1	32	0	0.33
13	@Old Dominion	L24-25	-10.1	26/36	203	2	2	53.0	24	1	0.01
20	vsUtah State	W45-22	-10.9	19/22	257	3	0	92.8	111	2	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.6%

Passing plays

97.6%

Rushing plays

27.6%

Standard downs

50.6%

Passing downs

73.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.18
Passing downs: 0.54
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.27

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.