#3Clayton Tune

QB·Houston·2022 20216.6 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Clayton Tune is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Houston. Clayton's 2021 season ranks in the 15th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 518 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Clayton Tune's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2021 Production

Passing

287/421 Comp/Att3546 Pass yards30 Pass TD10 INT68.2% Comp %

Rushing

154 Rush yards2 Rush TD105 Carries1.5 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2021 · vs QB peers

Efficiency15
Volume100
Dual-Threat79
Consistency83
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)15th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.13 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 0.82 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs South Florida (SP+ -12).

NIL Market Tier· 2021

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · QB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Jordan Travis	Florida State	2021	690	0.476	10.1	328.3

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsTexas Tech	L21-38	9.8	27/38	174	2	4	42.5	28	1	0.13
2	@Rice	W44-7	-22.9	22/30	236	2	0	83.3	49	0	0.49
3	vsGrambling	W45-0	—	4/7	62	0	1	3.4	-8	0	0.01
4	vsNavy	W28-20	-8.5	22/30	257	1	0	71.7	-1	0	0.45
5	@Tulsa	W45-10	5.8	17/24	241	2	1	90.7	0	0	0.51
6	@Tulane	W40-22	-3.9	23/36	288	3	0	60.9	-16	0	0.36
8	vsEast Carolina	W31-24	0.5	19/29	169	2	0	48.5	-38	0	0.09
9	vsSMU	W44-37	8.9	27/37	412	4	0	89.6	9	0	0.55
10	@South Florida	W54-42	-12.1	21/26	385	3	0	91.6	0	0	0.82
11	@Temple	W37-8	-19.1	21/34	224	2	0	62.0	1	0	0.25
12	vsMemphis	W31-13	1.0	20/34	264	1	2	63.5	59	1	0.27
13	@UConn	W45-17	-25.6	21/30	301	4	0	78.3	7	0	0.54
14	@Cincinnati	L20-35	21.2	17/26	250	2	1	73.3	21	0	0.26
1	vsAuburn	W17-13	11.0	26/40	283	2	1	74.0	43	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.0%

Passing plays

92.0%

Rushing plays

15.2%

Standard downs

48.3%

Passing downs

66.1%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.60
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.36 / 0.30

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2021 — 2022 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2021	Houston	6.6	0.469	—	257.2
2022	Houston	13.9	0.542	+0.07	353.3

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.