#16Charlie Brewer

QB·Baylor·2019 20185.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Charlie Brewer is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for Baylor. Charlie's 2019 season ranks in the 13th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 530 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Charlie Brewer's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2019 Production

Passing

251/389 Comp/Att3161 Pass yards21 Pass TD7 INT64.5% Comp %

Rushing

343 Rush yards11 Rush TD147 Carries2.3 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2019 · vs QB peers

Efficiency13
Volume100
Dual-Threat86
Consistency72
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)13th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency72th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.33 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.90 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs UTSA (SP+ -24).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsStephen F. Austin	W56-17	—	21/31	199	3	0	78.4	-1	0	0.32
2	vsUTSA	W63-14	-23.7	12/16	163	3	0	91.8	10	1	0.90
4	@Rice	W21-13	-18.0	20/27	303	1	0	89.3	58	1	0.63
5	vsIowa State	W23-21	12.6	26/45	307	3	0	53.2	29	0	0.25
6	@Kansas State	W31-12	6.0	14/23	230	1	0	52.6	-22	0	0.28
7	vsTexas Tech	W33-30	2.7	24/37	352	0	3	67.3	55	3	0.30
8	@Oklahoma State	W45-27	8.7	13/17	312	1	0	88.5	16	1	0.65
10	vsWest Virginia	W17-14	-7.0	20/26	277	2	0	—	25	0	0.33
11	@TCU	W29-23	6.7	27/41	195	2	1	—	41	1	0.15
12	vsOklahoma	L31-34	22.9	18/29	194	2	1	—	65	2	0.27
13	vsTexas	W24-10	12.0	16/25	221	1	0	—	75	1	0.29
14	@Kansas	W61-6	-9.8	13/25	182	1	1	—	-12	0	0.31
15	vsOklahoma	L23-30	22.9	3/6	15	0	0	—	-3	0	-0.44
1	vsGeorgia	L14-26	26.8	24/41	211	1	1	—	7	1	0.10

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

55.6%

Passing plays

87.3%

Rushing plays

25.3%

Standard downs

49.4%

Passing downs

67.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.17
Passing downs: 0.51
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.30 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2018 — 2019 · 27 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2018	Baylor	6.8	0.432	—	229.3
2019	Baylor	5.2	0.410	-0.02	215.4

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.