#7Chandler Rogers

QB·North Texas·20235.2 pts line valueDay 3 (Rds 4–7)

Chandler Rogers is a Dual-Threat QB for North Texas. Chandler's 2023 season ranks in the 10th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 502 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chandler Rogers's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

262/422 Comp/Att3383 Pass yards29 Pass TD5 INT62.1% Comp %

Rushing

180 Rush yards4 Rush TD109 Carries1.7 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency10
Volume100
Dual-Threat54
Consistency58
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)10th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency58th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.39 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Florida International (SP+ -21).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Contributor

Rotational contributor. Smaller collective or local deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsCalifornia	L21-58	-0.1	3/7	10	0	1	0.8	-10	0	-0.62
2	@Florida International	L39-46	-21.2	11/15	201	2	0	93.1	49	1	1.39
3	@Louisiana Tech	W40-37	-12.9	24/40	313	2	0	77.0	35	0	0.42
5	vsAbilene Christian	W45-31	—	23/36	321	3	0	70.8	29	1	0.45
6	@Navy	L24-27	-13.7	22/32	267	1	0	56.2	33	1	0.14
7	vsTemple	W45-14	-21.0	25/39	307	4	0	56.4	-17	0	0.27
8	@Tulane	L28-35	2.8	35/51	343	2	0	74.5	34	0	0.33
9	vsMemphis	L42-45	3.5	32/49	411	5	0	74.6	-29	0	0.30
10	vsUTSA	L29-37	5.4	20/38	272	2	2	30.7	20	0	0.28
11	@SMU	L21-45	10.1	18/31	240	2	1	49.4	-12	0	0.04
12	@Tulsa	W35-28	-13.7	19/31	294	3	0	67.0	56	1	0.34
13	vsUAB	W45-42	-14.7	30/53	404	3	1	46.4	-8	0	0.29

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

57.8%

Passing plays

91.2%

Rushing plays

19.7%

Standard downs

52.8%

Passing downs

68.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.13
Passing downs: 0.60
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.34 / 0.17

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 12 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.