#17Brett Hundley

QB·UCLA·2014 20134.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Brett Hundley is a 2-year Dual-Threat QB for UCLA. Brett's 2013 season ranks in the 73th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 433 plays — a average rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Brett Hundley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2013 Production

Passing

248/369 Comp/Att3071 Pass yards24 Pass TD9 INT67.2% Comp %

Rushing

748 Rush yards11 Rush TD160 Carries4.7 Yards/carry

Punting

1 Punts27 Punt yards27.0 Yards/punt27 Long0 Inside 20

Performance Analysis · 2013 · vs QB peers

Efficiency73
Volume100
Dual-Threat69
Consistency86
Clutch100

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)73th %ile · average

Game-to-game consistency86th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 0.64 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Nevada (SP+ -17).

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
1	vsNevada	W58-20	-16.8	22/33	274	2	0	96.6	63	2	0.64
3	@Nebraska	W41-21	11.6	16/24	294	3	1	78.4	61	0	0.25
4	vsNew Mexico State	W59-13	-35.1	23/35	280	3	2	69.7	33	0	0.14
6	@Utah	W34-27	11.8	17/27	211	1	1	47.3	85	1	0.41
7	vsCalifornia	W37-10	-8.7	31/41	410	3	0	80.1	18	0	0.51
8	@Stanford	L10-24	21.7	24/39	192	1	2	32.5	27	0	0.24
9	@Oregon	L14-42	28.7	13/19	64	1	2	37.7	72	1	0.04
10	vsColorado	W45-23	-0.7	19/24	273	2	0	97.9	72	2	0.51
11	@Arizona	W31-26	14.6	18/25	227	2	0	84.1	56	1	0.39
12	vsWashington	W41-31	20.5	13/22	159	2	0	66.2	15	0	0.19
13	vsArizona State	L33-38	17.5	18/26	253	2	1	37.1	5	0	0.49
14	@USC	W35-14	22.5	18/27	208	0	0	91.6	80	2	0.44
1	vsVirginia Tech	W42-12	14.9	16/27	226	2	0	90.3	161	2	0.38

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

51.1%

Passing plays

92.1%

Rushing plays

22.4%

Standard downs

42.0%

Passing downs

71.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.20
Passing downs: 0.61
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.42 / 0.24

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2013 — 2014 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2013	UCLA	4.3	0.286	—	126.8
2014	UCLA	8.8	0.451	+0.17	246.0

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.