#6Ashtyn Hawkins

WR·Texas State·2023

Ashtyn Hawkins is a Slot Specialist WR for Texas State. Ashtyn's 2023 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 72 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ashtyn Hawkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Receiving

55 Receptions874 Rec yards3 Rec TD15.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume23
Explosiveness59
Consistency80
Pass-Down70

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency80th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.28 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.79 EPA/play in Wk 1 vs Baylor (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Quadree Henderson	Pittsburgh	2016	63	0.530	1.6	33.4
DeAndre Hughes	Air Force	2021	60	0.470	1.3	28.2
Keytaon Thompson	Mississippi State	2017	70	0.460	1.2	32.2
Savion Williams	TCU	2024	56	0.450	1.1	25.2
Bert Emanuel Jr.	Central Michigan	2022	53	0.460	1.6	24.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Baylor	W42-31	-8.3	5	58	11.6	0	31	1.79
2	@UTSA	L13-20	5.4	3	41	13.7	0	28	0.76
3	vsJackson State	W77-34	—	3	38	12.7	1	27	1.15
4	vsNevada	W35-24	-22.0	6	49	8.2	0	12	-0.05
5	@Southern Miss	W50-36	-14.4	5	101	20.2	0	43	1.07
6	@Louisiana	L30-34	0.4	8	93	11.6	0	41	0.35
7	vsUL Monroe	W21-20	-21.6	1	15	15.0	0	15	-0.14
9	vsTroy	L13-31	9.8	4	57	14.3	1	28	1.19
10	vsGeorgia Southern	W45-24	-5.2	2	54	27.0	0	37	0.85
11	@Coastal Carolina	L23-31	-1.2	2	17	8.5	0	13	0.66
12	@Arkansas State	L31-77	-6.3	8	165	20.6	0	45	1.67
13	vsSouth Alabama	W52-44	5.1	5	131	26.2	1	48	1.25
20	vsRice	W45-21	-10.2	3	55	18.3	0	32	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

8.0%

Passing plays

16.5%

Rushing plays

0.4%

Standard downs

6.6%

Passing downs

10.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.73
Passing downs: 0.85
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.78 / 0.93

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).