#17AJ Swann

QB·Vanderbilt·2023

AJ Swann is a Dual-Threat QB for Vanderbilt. AJ's 2023 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 207 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So AJ Swann's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2023 Production

Passing

106/196 Comp/Att1418 Pass yards12 Pass TD7 INT54.1% Comp %

Rushing

11 Rush yards1 Rush TD28 Carries0.4 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2023 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat85
Consistency83
Clutch54

Player type

Dual-Threat QB

A genuine rushing threat who stresses defenses horizontally. Extends plays with legs and forces extra gap assignments.

Rushing threatScrambles for valueStresses defensive structure

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency83th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.39 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Wake Forest (SP+ -8).

NIL Market Tier· 2023

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	Rush TD	EPA/play
0	vsHawai'i	W35-28	-16.4	19/30	258	3	0	69.4	-26	0	—
1	vsAlabama A&M	W47-13	—	15/29	194	2	1	28.1	24	1	0.32
2	@Wake Forest	L20-36	-7.9	26/39	314	3	2	72.5	-8	0	0.39
3	@UNLV	L37-40	1.4	16/35	296	3	1	23.2	22	0	0.31
4	vsKentucky	L28-45	10.5	16/40	189	0	3	4.7	11	0	-0.01
13	@Tennessee	L24-48	16.2	14/23	167	1	0	52.3	-12	0	0.20

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

54.6%

Passing plays

90.0%

Rushing plays

9.0%

Standard downs

47.6%

Passing downs

67.4%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.23
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.26 / 0.33

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).