Ohio vs. South Alabama Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 2 games in, blended with the projection
Where Ohio gets at South Alabama: 33rd at running it, against a unit 102nd at defending the run. Where South Alabama gets at Ohio: 61st at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 119th at holding teams to field goals. Ohio is also 16th in the push up front, against a unit 77th.
How
OHIOattacks
USA
- 1
Run it
running it · 22% this season, 2 games
OHIO+0.16#33 of 138USA+0.09#102 of 138 - 2
Establish the push up front
the push the line gets · 21% this season, 2 games
OHIO3.28#16 of 138USA1.69#77 of 138 - 3
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 22% this season, 2 games
OHIO4.11#51 of 138USA3.30#103 of 138
HowUSAattacksOHIO
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · 24% this season, 2 games
USA4.15#61 of 138OHIO5.90#119 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · 24% this season, 2 games
USA+0.41#65 of 138OHIO+0.61#114 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · 24% this season, 2 games
USA13.6%#45 of 138OHIO15.0%#86 of 138
The two teams
Ohio
Ohio is in year 1 under John Hauser. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 119th at holding teams to field goals, and they are 114th at hitting chunk plays.
Ohio has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 25% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line9.9%#4 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.16#33 of 138
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss16.5%#33 of 138
Soft spots
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points5.90#119 of 138
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.13#114 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.61#114 of 138
South Alabama
South Alabama is in year 3 under Major Applewhite, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 29th at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 136th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 124th at defending the pass.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+3.4%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −17.4% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
South Alabama has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line13.8%#29 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.85#136 of 138
- Defensethrowing it+0.56#124 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USA Elo 1391, OHIO Elo 1323 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USA +4.6 (38% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
OHIO130th132ndUSAUSA99th126thOHIOThrough the air
OHIO128th66thUSAUSA71st126thOHIOOn the ground
OHIO80th81stUSAUSA35th126thOHIOStaying on the field
OHIO46th48thUSAUSA32nd137thOHIOTaking care of it
OHIO21st75thUSAUSA1st107thOHIO
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| OHIO | USA | |
|---|---|---|
| -9.9 (#109) | CORE overall | -4.8 (#84) |
| -2 / +8 | offense / defense | -0 / +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Ohio vs. South Alabama?
Gridpex's model favors Ohio with a 62% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Ohio vs. South Alabama?
The model projects Ohio by 4.6.
What time is Ohio vs. South Alabama and what channel is it on?
Sat, Sep 19, 7:00 PM ET, at Hancock Whitney Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →