New Mexico vs. Nevada Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where New Mexico gets at Nevada: 14th at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 117th at stuffing runs at the line. Nevada projects no clear way in against New Mexico. New Mexico is also 53rd at running it, against a unit 124th.
How
UNMattacks
NEV
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
UNM#14 of 138NEV#117 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
UNM#53 of 138NEV#124 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
UNM#39 of 138NEV#104 of 138
The two teams
New Mexico
New Mexico is in year 2 under Jason Eck. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 14th at staying out of the backfield.
New Mexico has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#14projected
- Defensegetting stopped at the line#25projected
Nevada
Nevada is in year 3 under Jeff Choate. The strengths are defensive, led by 34th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 131st at turning trips inside the 40 into points, and they are 129th at throwing it.
Nevada has played 1 game against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays#34projected
Projected soft spots
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#131projected
- Offensethrowing it#129projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#128projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NEV Elo 1462, UNM Elo 1558 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NEV +9.2 (28% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
UNM74th53rdNEVNEV51st4thUNMThrough the air
UNM115th61stNEVNEV117th2ndUNMOn the ground
UNM21st107thNEVNEV16th16thUNMStaying on the field
UNM49th75thNEVNEV78th6thUNMTaking care of it
UNM21st75thNEVNEV124th1stUNM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNevada leads 6–4–1 · 36% have been one-possession games
| UNM | NEV | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.4 (#41) | CORE overall | +2.9 (#60) |
| -2 / -9 | offense / defense | +2 / -1 |
| 4.11 | points / drive | 4.46 |
| 0.78 | allowed / drive | 1.27 |
| 11% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -4 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win New Mexico vs. Nevada?
Gridpex's model favors New Mexico with a 72% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for New Mexico vs. Nevada?
The model projects New Mexico by 9.2.
What time is New Mexico vs. Nevada and what channel is it on?
Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET, at Mackay Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →