Illinois State vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Illinois State

▸

Northern Illinois0-1

Final

TV MW+Huskie StadiumClear · 78°F

	1	2	3	4	T
ILLI	14	7	0	7	28
NIU	0	17	0	7	24

ILLITeam statsNIU

254Total yards308

153Pass196

101Rush112

19First downs20

9-143rd down6-14

2Turnovers2

31:16Possession28:44

Q4 1:53ILLIAlex Herrera 16 Yd pass from Gage Roy (Michael Cosentino Kick)28–24
Q4 7:24NIUTelly Johnson Jr. 1 Yd Run (JJ Schlenhardt Kick)21–24
Q2 0:00NIUDeAree Rogers 2 Yd pass from Taron Dickens (JJ Schlenhardt Kick)21–17
Q2 6:32NIUJJ Schlenhardt 40 Yd Field Goal 21–10
Q2 12:39NIUAndruw Ellis 30 Yd Interception Return (JJ Schlenhardt Kick)21–7
Q2 14:52ILLIDylan Lord 6 Yd pass from Gage Roy (Michael Cosentino Kick)21–0
Q1 6:27ILLIChase Kwiatkowski 14 Yd Run (Michael Cosentino Kick)14–0
Q1 12:41ILLIJack Oliver 39 Yd Interception Return (Michael Cosentino Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Model line

NIU −5.8

market ILLI −2.5

Biggest swing

ILLI +57%

Q4 1:05

Against the number

ILLI covered

line ILLI −2.5

How the line movedDraftKings · 17 readings · Sep 9–Sep 13

DraftKings's posted spread on Northern Illinois, at every moment we recorded it. NIU went from +4.5 to +2.5 — 2.0 points toward NIU.

+4.5+3.5+2.5

Sep 9Sep 10Sep 12Sep 13

y: DraftKings spread on NIU, pointsx: date recorded

DraftKingsclosed +2.5

NIU favored ↑50%ILLI favored ↓

GridpexILLI 100%

Closing line

ILLI −2.5

Closing total

48.0

Model line

NIU −5.8

Actual result

ILLI 28 – 24 NIU

DraftKings, liveILLI −2.5total 47.5

Illinois State

PassGage Roy 20/23, 146 YDS, 2 TD
RushVictor Dawson 12 CAR, 46 YDS
RecDylan Lord 8 REC, 62 YDS, 1 TD

Northern Illinois

PassTaron Dickens 22/27, 193 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
RushTelly Johnson Jr. 22 CAR, 83 YDS, 1 TD
RecDeAree Rogers 11 REC, 74 YDS, 1 TD

26.5sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

135

Points / snap

0.39

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ILLI up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

65%

ILLI went on to win

A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common

Most comparable games

WSan Diego State vs Ohio20-13 LNebraska vs Minnesota10-13 LMorgan State vs Akron21-24 LDrake vs Northwestern (IA)24-33 WHawai'i vs UAlbany31-20

Q4 1:05ILLI +57%
No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass incomplete short right to #0 L.Bryant thrown to ISU30 PENALTY ISU Pass Interference 15 yards from ISU47 to ISU32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
Q4 7:24NIU +44%
No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush right for 1 yard gain to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN PENALTY ISU Offside declined
Q1 11:23ILLI +18%
#36 J.Ference punt 33 yards to the ISU43
Q1 6:27ILLI +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #15 C.Kwiatkowski rush right for 14 yards gain to the NIU00 TOUCHDOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner broke the plane". CALL U…
Q4 7:17ILLI +16%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 S.Glatz rush right for 2 yards gain to the ISU27 (#5 Y.Falke)
Q3 11:50NIU +15%
#41 H.Futch punt 43 yards to the NIU27 #1 D.Rogers return 14 yards to the NIU41 (#22 N.Espinoza)

FAQ

What was the final score of Illinois State vs. Northern Illinois?

Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked NIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

ILLI

NIU

44%

Success rate

48%

-0.08

EPA / pass

0.09

0.04

EPA / rush

0.00

39%

Early-down success

49%

44%

Pass success

39%

44%

Rush success

58%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

12%

Stuffed rush rate

18%

49%

Pass rate

52%

5.8

Avg 3rd-down distance

6.3

ILLI

5.8 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

NIU

6.3 yards to go on 3rd down

69 scrimmage snaps

ILLI		NIU
254	Total yards	308
153	Passing yards	196
101	Rushing yards	112
19	First downs	20
9-14	3rd down	6-14
0-0	4th down	1-2
21/27	Comp/Att	23/30
5.7	Yards per pass	6.5
2.8	Yards per rush	3.1
2	Turnovers	2
6-77	Penalties	9-85
31:16	Possession	28:44

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

Game Info

Kickoff: Sat, Sep 12, 7:00 PM EDT
TV: MW+
Venue: Huskie Stadium
Setting: Non-conference
Model line: NIU -5.8

The Model's Pick

Northern Illinois

to win · 63%

✗ Miss

Projected spreadNIU -5.8

Market35%

Game Leaders

Illinois State

Pass Gage Roy20/23, 146 yds, 2 TD
Rush Victor Dawson12 car, 46 yds
Rec Dylan Lord8 rec, 62 yds, 1 TD

Northern Illinois

Pass Taron Dickens22/27, 193 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rush Telly Johnson Jr.22 car, 83 yds, 1 TD
Rec DeAree Rogers11 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD

Biggest Plays

Northern Illinois+-7.6 EPA
(12:46) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 B.Pellant pass intercepted by #30 A.Ellis at ISU30 #30 A.Ellis return 30 yards to the ISU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:39 Timeout Northern Illinois, clock 12:48 PENALTY NIU False Start 5 yards from ISU03 to ISU08. NO PLAY #33 J.Schlenhardt kick attempt good (H: #36 J.Ference, LS: #43 J.Evans)
Illinois State+-4.4 EPA
(00:25) No Huddle-Shotgun #5 T.Dickens pass intercepted by #8 D.Dubose at ISU25, End Of Play PENALTY ISU Personal Foul 12 yards from ISU25 to ISU13, 1ST DOWN
Illinois State+-4.0 EPA
(08:39) No Huddle-Shotgun #45 T.Johnson Jr. rush middle for 1 yard loss to the ISU10 (#46 T.Niekamp; #76 V.Garcia), TURNOVER ON DOWNS

ILLITeam statsNIU

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

Tempo

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

What decided it

FAQ

What was the final score of Illinois State vs. Northern Illinois?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Illinois State vs. Northern Illinois: Final Score & Recap

ILLITeam statsNIU

How the model called it

What was the final score of Illinois State vs. Northern Illinois?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?