Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Florida Atlantic gets at Tulsa: 43rd at staying on schedule through the air, against a unit 91st at keeping opponents off schedule through the air. Where Tulsa gets at Florida Atlantic: 50th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 109th at keeping everything in front of them. Florida Atlantic is also 4th at hitting chunk plays, against a unit 41st.
How
FAUattacks
TLSA
- 1
Stay on schedule through the air
staying on schedule through the air · projected
FAU#43 of 138TLSA#91 of 138 - 2
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
FAU#4 of 138TLSA#41 of 138 - 3
Trust the offense behind schedule
surviving second and twelve · projected
FAU#46 of 138TLSA#82 of 138
HowTLSAattacksFAU
- 1
Take shots
hitting chunk plays · projected
TLSA#50 of 138FAU#109 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
TLSA#101 of 138FAU#134 of 138
The two teams
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic is in year 2 under Zach Kittley. The strengths are offensive, led by 4th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 134th at defending the run, and they are 126th on early downs defensively.
Florida Atlantic has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays#4projected
Projected soft spots
- Defenserunning it#134projected
- Defensefirst and second down#126projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#126projected
Tulsa
Tulsa is in year 2 under Tre Lamb. The way in is 126th at staying out of the backfield, and they are 109th at throwing it.
Tulsa has played 2 games against a genuinely tough slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 0% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Projected soft spots
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#126projected
- Offensethrowing it#109projected
- Offensesurviving second and twelve#106projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TLSA Elo 1277, FAU Elo 1212 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TLSA -0.3 (51% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
FAU121st57thTLSATLSA93rd134thFAUThrough the air
FAU14th124thTLSATLSA108th110thFAUOn the ground
FAU133rd43rdTLSATLSA52nd137thFAUStaying on the field
FAU22nd65thTLSATLSA135th89thFAUTaking care of it
FAU77th9thTLSATLSA21st45thFAU
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| FAU | TLSA | |
|---|---|---|
| -12.1 (#119) | CORE overall | +0.1 (#69) |
| -2 / +10 | offense / defense | -4 / -4 |
| 2.10 | points / drive | 2.18 |
| 6.00 | allowed / drive | 0.91 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| +10 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
Gridpex's model favors Tulsa with a 51% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa?
The model projects Tulsa by 0.3.
What time is Florida Atlantic vs. Tulsa and what channel is it on?
Time TBD, at Chapman Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →