Memphis vs. South Florida Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 · 3 games in, blended with the projection
Where South Florida gets at Memphis: 24th on first and second down, against a unit 115th on early downs defensively. Memphis projects no clear way in against South Florida. South Florida is also 56th at running it, against a unit 118th.
How
USFattacks
MEM
- 1
Win first and second down
first and second down · projected · 2 games in
USF55%#24 of 138MEM54%#115 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected · 2 games in
USF+0.07#56 of 138MEM+0.34#118 of 138 - 3
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · 20% this season, 2 games
USF22.6%#33 of 138MEM13.1%#94 of 138
The two teams
Memphis
Memphis is in year 1 under Charles Huff, whose offenses have been balanced. The strengths are offensive, led by 5th at hitting chunk plays. The way in is 119th at keeping everything in front of them, and they are 118th at defending the run.
On fourth down he goes for it about as often as his peers do from the same spots (−1.8%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −37.6% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Memphis has played 3 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 31% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.50#5 of 138
- Offenserunning it+0.22#20 of 138
- Offensethe push the line gets3.29#32 of 138
Soft spots
- Defensehitting chunk plays1.39#119 of 138
- Defenserunning it+0.34#118 of 138
- Defensefirst and second down54%#115 of 138
South Florida
South Florida is in year 1 under Brian Hartline. The strengths are on both sides of the ball, led by 9th at keeping everything in front of them. The way in is 121st at hitting chunk plays.
South Florida has played 2 games against an average slate, adjusted for here. That football carries about 23% of what is below; the rest is still the preseason projection.
Strengths
- Defensehitting chunk plays0.93#9 of 138
- Offensefirst and second down55%#24 of 138
- Offenseturning trips inside the 40 into points4.70#31 of 138
Soft spots
- Offensehitting chunk plays1.00#121 of 138
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1682, MEM Elo 1529 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USF -5.4 (63% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
MEM7th85thUSFUSF113th129thMEMThrough the air
MEM45th85thUSFUSF112th125thMEMOn the ground
MEM32nd101stUSFUSF110th130thMEMStaying on the field
MEM110th50thUSFUSF52nd72ndMEMTaking care of it
MEM105th22ndUSFUSF1st22ndMEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMemphis leads 10–4 · Memphis has won 5 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| MEM | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.4 (#36) | CORE overall | +2.6 (#62) |
| +9 / -1 | offense / defense | -2 / -5 |
| 3.00 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 1.88 | allowed / drive | 1.11 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| -7 | pass over expected | -9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
FAQ
Who will win Memphis vs. South Florida?
Gridpex's model favors South Florida with a 63% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Memphis vs. South Florida?
The model projects South Florida by 5.4.
What time is Memphis vs. South Florida and what channel is it on?
Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ET, at Raymond James Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →