Temple vs. Navy Prediction, Odds & Pick
Prediction, odds and the model's read
Our model's read
Scouting report
2026 projection · last season, roster and staff
Where Temple gets at Navy: 70th at turning trips inside the 40 into points, against a unit 120th at holding teams to field goals. Where Navy gets at Temple: 2nd at staying out of the backfield, against a unit 131st at stuffing runs at the line. Temple is also 82nd at throwing it, against a unit 131st.
How
TEMattacks
NAVY
- 1
Finish drives in the red zone
turning trips inside the 40 into points · projected
TEM#70 of 138NAVY#120 of 138 - 2
Throw it
throwing it · projected
TEM#82 of 138NAVY#131 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
TEM#87 of 138NAVY#132 of 138
HowNAVYattacksTEM
- 1
Expect clean run lanes
getting stopped at the line · projected
NAVY#2 of 138TEM#131 of 138 - 2
Run it
running it · projected
NAVY#21 of 138TEM#128 of 138 - 3
Expect a clean pocket
sacks and tackles for loss · projected
NAVY#11 of 138TEM#102 of 138
The two teams
Temple
Temple is in year 2 under K.C. Keeler. The way in is 132nd at holding the line of scrimmage, and they are 131st at shutting down the ground game.
Temple has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected soft spots
- Defensethe push the line gets#132projected
- Defensemoving the ball on the ground#131projected
- Defenseturning trips inside the 40 into points#129projected
Navy
Navy runs it: Brian Newberry's offenses have been heavily run-leaning across 3 seasons. The strengths are offensive, led by 2nd at staying out of the backfield. The way in is 132nd at generating havoc, and they are 131st at hitting chunk plays.
On fourth down he goes for it more often than his peers do from the same spots (+5.3%). Against what the expected-points model recommends he is −29.5% — the profession as a whole is negative on this.
Navy has not played an FBS opponent yet, so this is the projection: last season regressed toward the mean, plus returning production, recruiting, talent and whether the staff is the same one.
Projected strengths
- Offensegetting stopped at the line#2projected
- Offensesacks and tackles for loss#11projected
- Offenserunning it#21projected
Projected soft spots
- Defensesacks and tackles for loss#132projected
- Offensehitting chunk plays#131projected
- Defensethrowing it#131projected
Ranks are national. Nothing here is last season's number — carrying one forward is measurably worse than saying nothing — and in-season figures are adjusted for who was actually played. This describes the matchup; it is not a prediction and not a pick.
Head coaches only — there is no free feed for coordinators, so on a program where the head coach does not call the offense this describes the staff he hired. Play-calling identity is a style, not a grade: throwing more than the situations warrant is not better than throwing less than they warrant.
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NAVY Elo 1527, TEM Elo 1293 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NAVY -0.9 (53% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Where the game is won
2026 national rank · right is better
offensethe defense it faces
Moving the ball
TEM92nd108thNAVYNAVY43rd89thTEMThrough the air
TEM129th133rdNAVYNAVY135th101stTEMOn the ground
TEM41st6thNAVYNAVY2nd46thTEMStaying on the field
TEM127th111thNAVYNAVY63rd121stTEMTaking care of it
TEM49th126thNAVYNAVY49th45thTEM
Each bar runs from last in the country on the left to 1st on the right. The filled span is the gap between the offense and the defense it faces.
Season form — 2026
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNavy leads 11–9 · Navy has won 2 straight · 50% have been one-possession games
| TEM | NAVY | |
|---|---|---|
| -5.2 (#87) | CORE overall | -8.1 (#101) |
| -2 / +3 | offense / defense | -2 / +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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FAQ
Who will win Temple vs. Navy?
Gridpex's model favors Navy with a 53% win probability.
What's the predicted spread for Temple vs. Navy?
The model projects Navy by 0.9.
What time is Temple vs. Navy and what channel is it on?
Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET, at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →